How I Made $400K from World War 3.. - BrokieTrades

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 02, 2026 at 14:00  |  29:16  |  Thread Guy
Speakers
Thread Guy — Crypto influencer, independent

Summary

Host Thread Guy interviews Polymarket trader BrokieTrades, who shares his edge in geopolitical betting on the Iran conflict and oil trading on Hyperliquid. He explains specific trades on Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, oil funding rate arbitrage, and 2028 election markets.

  • Guest BrokieTrades is a student who primarily trades prediction markets on Polymarket.
  • He made money betting on Khamenei's death using Israeli media insights.
  • He trades oil on Hyperliquid, shorting long-term via funding rate and going long short-term on escalation.
  • He holds a position on Mojtaba Khamenei being dead by year-end.
  • He believes JD Vance will be the 2028 GOP nominee; Rubio won't run.
  • He emphasizes having a clear edge and understanding counterparty motivations.
  • He uses 'negrisk' conversion on Polymarket to arbitrage.
  • The host and guest discuss challenges of trading Trump's statements.
Trade Ideas
BrokieTrades 3:50
Trust Israeli media over Iranian media.
Polymarket contract on Ali Khamenei being out was mispriced because Western traders trusted Iranian state media, while Israeli media indicated he was dead. Buying yes shares at 50 cents provided edge.
Polymarket: Khamenei out MED
BrokieTrades 7:36
IRGC hides death for power consolidation.
IRGC is incentivized to hide Mojtaba Khamenei's death to consolidate power; the survival story is far-fetched. Holding yes shares on Polymarket that he will be out by year-end.
Polymarket: Mojtaba Khamenei out by end of year MED
BrokieTrades 9:34
Funding rate mispricing makes short profitable.
Hyperliquid's funding rate for Brent oil is mispriced such that opening a short position for six months will be profitable as the war resolves and oil prices decline.
Brent oil on Hyperliquid MED
BrokieTrades 23:47
Rubio won't run; Vance nominee.
Marco Rubio will not run for president in 2028 because he enjoys his Secretary of State role and doesn't want to campaign; JD Vance is the likely nominee. Sold yes shares on Rubio and is long Vance.
Polymarket: JD Vance 2028 GOP nominee MED
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This Thread Guy video, published May 02, 2026, features BrokieTrades discussing Polymarket: Khamenei out, Polymarket: Mojtaba Khamenei out by end of year, Brent oil on Hyperliquid, Polymarket: JD Vance 2028 GOP nominee. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: BrokieTrades  · Tickers: Polymarket: Khamenei out, Polymarket: Mojtaba Khamenei out by end of year, Brent oil on Hyperliquid, Polymarket: JD Vance 2028 GOP nominee