US Aircraft Carrier Heads to the Middle East... Is Khamenei's Fate Finally Ending? / Escalation of the Iran Crisis Would Be a Disaster, Trump's Growing Dilemma | Seo Sang-hyun, Research Fellow, Korea University

Summary

Seo Sang-hyun, a research fellow at Korea University's Asia-Africa Individual Cooperation Center, discusses the Iranian protests, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and uncertainty around Supreme Leader Khamenei. He attributes the unrest to inflation, currency collapse, and resentment over billions of dollars spent on regional proxies. He says the US is moving an aircraft carrier toward the Middle East but views full-scale war as unlikely, with limited strikes or token retaliation more probable. The main market risk he highlights is disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes.

• Seo Sang-hyun says Iran's protests are driven by severe inflation, currency collapse, and anger over support for regional proxies.
• He explains that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and affiliated militias, rather than the regular army, are leading the crackdown and are tied to Supreme Leader Khamenei.
• The speaker says Khamenei's reported exile plans are uncertain; the leader appears to be relying on the IRGC and militia forces.
• The US has moved an aircraft carrier toward the Middle East, but the speaker sees full-scale war as unlikely due to Iran's weakened proxies and US escalation constraints.
• Washington's preferred outcomes are internal regime change or a nuclear negotiation, while direct US strikes would likely be limited and pinpoint.
• Regional powers and Western countries worry that a sudden regime collapse could lead to Syrian- or Libyan-style civil war and spillover.
• The key market risk he identifies is disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and the roughly 20% of global oil that passes through it.