Trump Tariffs: What Happens if US Supreme Court Cancels Them | The Pulse 1/14

Watch on YouTube ↗ | January 14, 2026 at 12:16 | 48:39 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Ralf Preusser — Global Head of G10 Rates and FX Strategy, Bank of America

Omotunde Lawal — Head of EMEA Corporate Credit and EM Corporate Debt, Barings

Jamie Dimon — CEO, JPMorgan Chase

Charles

Mike Doustdar — CEO, Novo Nordisk

Sam — Director of Research for Global Industries and Pharmaceuticals Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

Charlie Wells — Bloomberg Reporter

Saadia Zahidi — Managing Director, World Economic Forum

Marc Champion — Bloomberg Columnist

Georgina Wright — Senior Fellow, German Marshall Fund

Summary

The Pulse covers a busy macro and corporate agenda: potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump's IEEPA tariffs, the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Powell, and market roundtable views on dollar, EM, FX, and geopolitics. US bank earnings were mixed but Jamie Dimon remained optimistic on the economy and regulation. European defense spending continued to draw investor interest ahead of CSG's planned Amsterdam IPO. Novo Nordisk's CEO touted its oral obesity pill, while a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst discussed GLP-1 competition and pharma catalysts.

Supreme Court could rule on the legality of Trump's IEEPA tariffs; refunds and replacement authorities create uncertainty.
BofA's Ralf Preusser sees gradual dollar decline, short yen, and Aussie risk-correction exposure; Barings' Omotunde Lawal is positive on EM and EU-Mercosur beneficiaries.
Jamie Dimon remains optimistic on the US economy and bank capital redeployment; bank earnings were mixed.
European defense spending supports sector momentum; CSG plans what could be the largest defense IPO in Amsterdam.
WEF risk report flags geopolitical confrontation and AI governance as top medium-term risks.
Novo Nordisk CEO is bullish on the oral obesity pill; BI analyst sees Eli Lilly edging Novo as competition builds.
French politics and Iran protests remain political risk backdrops.

Ideas

Ralf Preusser Global Head of G10 Rates and FX Strategy, Bank of America 9:20

Gradual US dollar decline this year.

Ralf sees a gradual decline in the dollar over the course of the year. While last year's dollar-debasement and reserve-diversification discussions have slowed with calmer markets, the underlying assumption remains that investors will increase hedging of dollar asset exposure through portfolio optimization and correlation or hedge adjustments.

Omotunde Lawal Head of EMEA Corporate Credit and EM Corporate Debt, Barings 10:58

Emerging Markets supported by weaker dollar.

Omotunde is positive on emerging markets, arguing a weaker dollar, rallying gold and commodity prices, and regime changes in Venezuela and Iraq are supportive, contrary to the view that geopolitics is uniformly negative for EM.

Omotunde Lawal Head of EMEA Corporate Credit and EM Corporate Debt, Barings 16:04

EU-Mercosur deal boosts EU and LatAm.

She is excited about the EU-Mercosur trade deal and expects it to benefit both the EU and Latin America, naming Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, as countries look to diversify their reliance on the US and build alternative trade relationships.

Ralf Preusser Global Head of G10 Rates and FX Strategy, Bank of America 17:20

Short yen as favored FX trade.

After taking a lot of risk off FX recommendations, Ralf says his favorite trade is now short the yen for the first time in a long time. He does not provide a detailed fundamental rationale beyond it being a fresh, out-of-consensus FX recommendation.

Ralf Preusser Global Head of G10 Rates and FX Strategy, Bank of America 17:31

Aussie vulnerable to risk-asset correction.

Ralf flags the Aussie as an out-of-consensus currency most exposed to any potential correction in risk assets, implying it is a key vulnerability to monitor if risk sentiment deteriorates.

Jamie Dimon CEO, JPMorgan Chase 18:38

US banks benefit from deregulation, capital redeployment.

Jamie Dimon says the short-run US backdrop is positive: consumers have money, jobs remain, the One Big Beautiful Bill adds stimulus, and regulation is a plus that will let banks redeploy capital, supporting US banks despite geopolitical risk.

Charles 21:01

European defense spending supports sector.

Charles says European defense companies are being driven by billions of euros of European government spending to increase capabilities and restock after Ukraine, reinforced by US pressure on NATO members to spend more; defense shares are already up 17% year-to-date and 100% over 12 months.

Charles 21:43

CSG IPO benefits from defense momentum.

CSG, a Czech defense firm and key munitions supplier to Ukraine, plans what could be the largest-ever defense IPO in Amsterdam, capitalizing on European defense spending momentum, but a small free float and possible further shareholder sell-down could create an overhang and temporarily suppress the shares.

Mike Doustdar CEO, Novo Nordisk 41:46

Novo oral obesity pill drives upside.

The Novo Nordisk CEO says launch demand for its oral obesity/Wegovy pill is strong, the pill has 16.6% efficacy equal to the Wegovy injection and is second to none versus competitors, giving Novo a first-mover offering for patients who do not want injections; the company is also hunting obesity M&A to boost its pipeline.

Sam Director of Research for Global Industries and Pharmaceuticals Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 45:27

Eli Lilly leads obesity efficacy race.

Sam says Eli Lilly is edging Novo Nordisk in the obesity/GLP-1 market because of better efficacy, making Lilly the stronger incumbent while AstraZeneca, Pfizer and others are still years away from adding competition.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 14, 2026, features Ralf Preusser, Omotunde Lawal, Jamie Dimon, Charles, Mike Doustdar, Sam discussing USD, EEM, Latin America, European Union, EWZ, ARGT, Paraguay, FXY, AUD, KBE, ITA, CSG, NVO, LLY. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ralf Preusser, Omotunde Lawal, Jamie Dimon, Charles, Mike Doustdar, Sam · Tickers: USD, EEM, Latin America, European Union, EWZ, ARGT, Paraguay, FXY, AUD, KBE, ITA, CSG, NVO, LLY