Ideas
MicroStrategy is doomed to blow up.
Saylor is behaving like a rogue trader and running the same leveraged playbook as Three Arrows Capital, though with Bitcoin as a better asset base and more sophisticated lenders. He keeps buying at highs and will blow up if he does not stop; all similar SPVs and Bitcoin treasury vehicles are at risk. When he blows up, Bitcoin will be down badly, and Avi says this will not end well.
Prefer Bitcoin over equities.
Gold ripping and equities having topped out, with markets pricing a benign tariff resolution that is still uncertain, makes him concerned about equities and preparing for another drawdown. By contrast, Bitcoin is up while equities are down, disconnecting to the upside, trading more like gold than stocks, and has a massive put under the market, so he is less concerned about Bitcoin than equities.
Prefer Bitcoin over equities.
Gold ripping and equities having topped out, with markets pricing a benign tariff resolution that is still uncertain, makes him concerned about equities and preparing for another drawdown. By contrast, Bitcoin is up while equities are down, disconnecting to the upside, trading more like gold than stocks, and has a massive put under the market, so he is less concerned about Bitcoin than equities.
Long crypto assets with real usage.
Specific crypto assets are outperforming because they are actually good assets accumulating real users, revenues, and usage rather than just riding beta. He names Hyperliquid, Bittensor/TAO, Curve, and Monero as examples and thinks this fundamental outperformance continues.
Short ETH rallies; structural selling persists.
Avi remains giga bearish on ETH and likes owning Hyperliquid/TAO versus shorting ETH. ETH's huge FTV means lots of blood can still leak out; long-term holders with very low cost bases need liquidity, creating endless selling with no fresh investment. ETH ETF flows are weak and look like a stranded asset, the jury is no longer out and ETH is trending lower, so he shorts rallies, especially 20-50% off lows.
Buy TAO aggressively on crashes.
TAO keeps rallying and he has wanted to accumulate more but was waiting for a dip, missing the move because it grinds up 3-8% daily. He does not fully understand its cash flows or ecosystem yet, but in a broad crash where everything except gold falls, he plans to buy TAO with both hands.
Short weak altcoin bounces repeatedly.
There are many structurally flawed, VC-backed altcoins that can be repeatedly shorted when they bounce 20-50% off lows or post one or two weeks of outperformance. Retail bagholders buy because the assets are down and the charts look good, then leave, while VCs dump; these assets ultimately go to zero. This works while Bitcoin chops between roughly 80K and 109K, but not during a euphoric all-time-high breakout.
Equities face another tariff-driven pullback.
He expects an equity pullback because the violent move from down 30% to up 20% was not fundamentally rational; buyers trapped in the 480-490 bounce still need to sell, and companies absorbing tariff costs will see earnings revised lower. He thinks equities could fall another roughly 10% before a sustained recovery.
Prefer spot Bitcoin; buy 90K dip.
At 85K he liked calls for a sharp reversion, but at 95K Bitcoin is more headline-dependent and needs follow-through, so he is no longer touching calls and sees vols as fairly priced. Spot BTC is a good place to hang out; he remains an 80-out-of-100 bull but is lighter on exposure and holding cash to buy Bitcoin around 90K again.
Prefer spot Bitcoin; buy 90K dip.
At 85K he liked calls for a sharp reversion, but at 95K Bitcoin is more headline-dependent and needs follow-through, so he is no longer touching calls and sees vols as fairly priced. Spot BTC is a good place to hang out; he remains an 80-out-of-100 bull but is lighter on exposure and holding cash to buy Bitcoin around 90K again.
Bet on crypto deregulation sectors.
The recent crypto leaders—Virtuals, Hyperliquid, Monero, Maker, and Tao—are giving the market tea leaves for which alts will perform in the next deregulation cycle. The key areas to bet on for the next leg higher are RWA/onchain, DeFi yield-bearing assets, and AI.
This 1000x Podcast video, published May 05, 2025,
features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg
discussing MSTR, BTC, Equities, TAO, XMR, CRV, HYPE, ETH, WLD, ICP, TIA, WIF, MOVE, BTC call options, RWA onchain, DEFI-YIELD, AI-SECTOR.
11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Avi Felman,
Jonah Van Bourg
· Tickers:
MSTR,
BTC,
Equities,
TAO,
XMR,
CRV,
HYPE,
ETH,
WLD,
ICP,
TIA,
WIF,
MOVE,
BTC call options,
RWA onchain,
DEFI-YIELD,
AI-SECTOR
