Name: Elon’s go-to banker leads SpaceX IPO, SaaSination, Bejing’s robot Boom | Diet TBPN
Uploaded: 2026-02-11T03:01:36+00:00
Duration: 1835 s

Speakers

John Coogan — Co-Host, TBPN

Brad Gerstner — CEO, Altimeter Capital

Summary

The episode discusses Michael Grimes' return to Morgan Stanley as a signal for a potential SpaceX IPO, Apollo's avoidance of software investments amid the AI-driven SaaS selloff, and a CNBC clip of Brad Gerstner warning about AI disruption in software. It also covers China's aggressive push into humanoid robotics, Alphabet's 100-year bond sale, and broader concerns about AI bubble and business model disruption.

Michael Grimes rejoins Morgan Stanley as chairman, boosting expectations for a SpaceX IPO.
Apollo Global Management avoided software exposure and reported record capital deployment.
Brad Gerstner warns AI is disrupting SaaS business models and terminal values.
Some AI-resistant software categories like payment rails may rebound.
China is investing heavily in humanoid robotics with state funds and supply chain depth.
Alphabet sold $25B of 100-year debt, reflecting strong demand.
Hosts discuss AI bubble concerns and potential disruption in software and auditing.

Ideas

John Coogan Co-Host, TBPN 11:51

Apollo benefits from avoiding software.

Apollo avoided heavily investing in software companies during an era of soaring valuations and cut its software loan exposure as it grew bearish on AI disruption. This positions it better than peers as investors rotate to firms that avoided the sector, and it reported a record quarter for capital deployment with expectations for higher fees and a premium valuation relative to history.

Brad Gerstner CEO, Altimeter Capital 17:18

AI disrupts software; avoid SaaS.

AI is disrupting software business models by reducing visibility into future free cash flows, leading to terminal value compression across the sector. The narrative is unlikely to reverse unless companies accelerate core revenue growth and prove they are AI beneficiaries. The real SaaS apocalypse may start when AI labs go public and investors rotate out of software into disruptors.

Brad Gerstner CEO, Altimeter Capital 20:06

Payment rails resist AI disruption.

Within SaaS, some companies are AGI-resistant due to ad networks, lock-in effects, regulatory modes, and payment rails. Payment rails in particular have bank charters, distribution, and customer lock-in that cannot be easily replicated by models, so these businesses should rebound.

John Coogan Co-Host, TBPN 20:40

Favor physical, regulated, cybersecurity businesses.

If AI commoditizes software, the safe areas are regulated, liability-bearing businesses, anything touching the physical world such as hardware, manufacturing, and energy, proprietary data sets, marketplaces and network-effect businesses, operationally intense businesses, and cybersecurity/physical security because more AI increases attack surface.

John Coogan Co-Host, TBPN 23:25

China humanoid robotics is booming.

China is aggressively supporting humanoid robotics with over $26B in city investment funds, 140 companies, a deep supply chain, and rapid commercialization. Orders worth more than $300M in H2 2025 imply a ~$600M run-rate, and Morgan Stanley predicts 100,000 humanoid robots shipped in 2026. At an estimated $20,000 ASP, this would create a multi-billion dollar industry, similar to China's EV buildout.

This TBPN video, published February 11, 2026, features John Coogan, Brad Gerstner discussing APO, Software/SaaS, IPAY, Ad networks, CIBR, Marketplaces, XLE, Chinese humanoid robotics. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: John Coogan, Brad Gerstner · Tickers: APO, Software/SaaS, IPAY, Ad networks, CIBR, Marketplaces, XLE, Chinese humanoid robotics

Elon’s go-to banker leads SpaceX IPO, SaaSination, Bejing’s robot Boom | Diet TBPN

Summary

Ideas

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