When the Bond Market Speaks, People Listen, TD's Goldberg Says
Спикеры
Gennadiy Goldberg
— Head of US Rates Strategy, TD Securities
Gennadiy Goldberg of TD Securities argues the long end is being pressured by supply, demand, and an unclear Fed reaction function, making him cautious on 10-year Treasuries over the next three to six months with a possible test of 5%. He sees the Fed's base case as holding rates, but says the bar for a September hike is low and any hiking cycle would flatten the yield curve materially. Longer term, he expects 10-year yields to hover near current levels and not break above 5%, with real rates attractive.
- Long end under pressure from supply, demand, and Fed uncertainty.
- Short-term caution on 10-year Treasuries with a possible 5% yield.
- Fed base case is to hold, but September/October hike risk is low bar.
- Data triggers cited: 4% unemployment, 150k-200k payrolls, 0.35%-0.4% core PCE.
- If the Fed hikes, he expects 50-75 basis points and curve flattening.
- 5% on the 10-year is viewed as a line in the sand with real rates attractive.
Идеи
Near-term 10-year Treasury risk to 5%
Goldberg is nervous about getting long 10-year Treasuries into Jackson Hole because investor conviction is rock bottom, the market is dealing with supply-side, demand-side, and unclear Fed reaction-function pressures, and the global rise in rates makes the next three to six months the key worry; 10-year yields could test 5% even if longer-term value appears fine.
Fed hikes would materially flatten curve
If the Fed does hike rates, which is not TD's base case, Goldberg expects the hiking cycle to total 50 to 75 basis points and the Treasury yield curve to flatten materially as hikes help the long end; the base case remains a hold, but he says the risk of a September or October hike is real.
Long-end Treasury yields capped near 5%
On a longer horizon, Goldberg expects long-end Treasury yields to hover around current levels and does not expect a breakout to 5%; he sees 5% as a line in the sand with enough investors keen to buy both nominal and real long-end yields, and he views real rates as quite attractive.
Далее
This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 19, 2026, features Gennadiy Goldberg discussing U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note, U.S. Treasury yield curve, U.S. Long-End Treasuries. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Gennadiy Goldberg · Tickers: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note, U.S. Treasury yield curve, U.S. Long-End Treasuries