Идеи
AI earnings revisions support S&P 500 upside
Despite high valuation metrics and midterm-year seasonality, S&P 500 earnings revisions have been unusually strong, with 2025 EPS expectations revised about 15% above the start of the year. Song sees AI adoption as still early and expects current earnings strength to continue into next year unless long-term rates rise sharply, so he remains cautiously optimistic on US equities.
Long-term US Treasury yields face upward pressure
Song argues that long-term US Treasury yields face sustained upward pressure from three structural forces: post-COVID inflation, US-China supply-chain fragmentation, and persistent government debt buildup. Although nominal GDP growth currently helps absorb higher rates, he says bond investors are increasingly worried about a debt snowball effect.
Big Tech corporate bonds beat US Treasuries
With US 30-year Treasury yields around 5.3% and Alphabet 30-year bonds offering about 6.3-6.5%, investors are choosing Big Tech corporate bonds over US government debt. Song says this shift is pulling money toward Big Tech credit and adding upward pressure to US Treasury yields.
Hyperscaler off-balance-sheet debt is future risk
Song warns that Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet have an estimated $2.4 trillion of off-balance-sheet liabilities beyond their reported debt. He says this is not an immediate problem, but if AI earnings do not grow enough to justify the spending, these liabilities could become a serious issue and trigger major market stress.
Samsung and SK Hynix look attractive
Samsung Electronics has fallen enough to look like a value and high-dividend stock, supported by buybacks and cancellations, while SK Hynix ADR is showing positive after-market action. Song expects hedge fund churning to give way to longer-term investors, making the recent semiconductor decline potentially positive.
This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published August 19, 2026,
features Song Jaekyung
discussing SPY, TLT, LQD, AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOG, KS.
5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Song Jaekyung
· Tickers:
SPY,
TLT,
LQD,
AMZN,
MSFT,
META,
GOOG,
KS