Gulf states are looking for an exit ramp from Iran war: The Atlantic Council's Jonathan Panikoff

Summary

Jonathan Panikoff of the Atlantic Council discusses Gulf states' frustration and search for an exit ramp from the Iran war amid reduced confidence in U.S. security guarantees. He explains that oil prices have been subdued by implicit Gulf detente and weak Chinese demand, but sees potential upward pressure later in the fall from SPR releases ending, returning Chinese demand, European reserve filling, and pipeline strike risks. The interview also touches on MBS requesting U.S. support against the Houthis and Trump declining.

• Gulf states are frustrated and seeking a sustainable exit ramp from the Iran war.
• Gulf confidence in U.S. security guarantees has weakened.
• MBS reportedly asked Trump for support striking the Houthis, but Trump declined.
• Oil prices are down despite Middle East escalation, helped by implicit Gulf detente and soft Chinese demand.
• Panikoff sees possible oil upside by next week depending on developments.
• Fall factors could add oil pressure: end of SPR releases, Chinese demand return, European reserve filling, and pipeline strikes.