Trump Says He's Disappointed in NATO | Balance of Power: Early Edition 3/17/2026
Speakers
Summary
- The resignation of Joe Kent, head of U.S. counterterrorism, highlights a rift within the Republican Party over the Iran conflict, with his claim of "no imminent threat" contested by others.
- President Trump expresses strong disappointment with NATO allies for not providing naval support to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed on Day 18 of the conflict.
- Congressman Michael McCaul (R-TX) argues the U.S. can act alone but that European allies should share the burden as they are more dependent on the strait for energy, framing it as a cost-sharing issue.
- McCaul disagrees with the administration's decision to lift sanctions on Russia, citing Russia's provision of military intelligence to Iran that is used to target Americans.
- Ilan Goldenberg assesses the Iran conflict as a "worst outcome" scenario, stating the U.S. administration was unprepared for Iran's move to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is easy for them to disrupt.
- Goldenberg pushes back on Joe Kent's resignation letter, calling its blaming of Israel "conspiracy theory level stuff" and emphasizing the ultimate responsibility lies with the U.S. President.
- Markets show oil majors like Exxon and ConocoPhillips advancing, with Brent crude above $102/barrel and diesel above $5/gallon, cited as negative for the economy.
- Maya MacGuineas warns the U.S. fiscal situation is dangerously vulnerable, with emergency war spending potentially requiring a supplemental budget and worsening the deficit without offsets.
- MacGuineas expresses concern that any emergency spending bill will become a "Christmas tree" for unrelated items, further complicating the budget process.
- The discussion notes Ukraine has offered its expertise in counter-drone warfare to the U.S., developed cost-effectively over four years, which McCaul believes should be rewarded.
Trade Ideas
The speaker reported that gold is "still above 5000" at $5003, though down by about 0.1%. Gold is trading at an elevated level amid significant geopolitical tension (U.S.-Iran conflict) and market volatility (VIX above 22), which typically supports safe-haven demand. The metal is holding a historically high price level, indicating sustained investor concern, making its price action worthy of close monitoring for a breakout or reversal. A swift de-escalation of the Iran conflict, reducing safe-haven demand and prompting a sharp correction in gold prices.
The speaker reported that oil stocks, the majors, are advancing, with Exxon Mobil up 1.8% and ConocoPhillips up 1.6%. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, driving up crude oil and fuel prices (Brent ~$102, diesel >$5). Major integrated oil companies are direct beneficiaries of higher hydrocarbon prices, leading to immediate stock price appreciation. A rapid diplomatic resolution that reopens the strait and normalizes oil flows, collapsing the geopolitical risk premium.
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Speakers: Charlie Wells · Tickers: GLD, COP, XOM