Macquarie's Steve Koenig on SpaceX: Value is in the long-term story

Summary

Macquarie analyst Steve Koenig discusses SpaceX's upcoming earnings, emphasizing that the real value is in the long-term story. He highlights Starship's potential to lower launch costs, Starlink's profitability and subscriber growth, and the AI satellite opportunity with contracts from Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. The conversation also touches on prediction market odds for topics Elon Musk might mention on the call.

• Steve Koenig expects investors to focus on SpaceX's long-term narrative rather than near-term quantitative results.
• Starship's ability to lower launch costs is seen as key leverage for SpaceX.
• Starlink now drives over half of revenue and is profitable, with subscribers expected to nearly double year-over-year to about 12 million.
• SpaceX plans to put GPU racks into space on AI satellites, with terrestrial AI revenue coming from contracts with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI.
• The core thesis is that value lies in the long-term convergence of launch, satellite, and AI capabilities.
• Prediction markets indicate high expectations for Musk to mention topics like AI, Tesla, and Mars, but a merger mention is less certain.