Increasing number of companies set to benefit from new AI industrial cycle: Evercore's Mark Mahaney

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 15, 2026 at 20:07  |  4:38  |  CNBC
Speakers
Mark Mahaney — Head of Internet Research, Evercore ISI

Summary

Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI discusses the AI-driven capex cycle, arguing it is not peaking and will continue to create a new industrial tech cycle with an expanding set of beneficiaries. He names Amazon as his current top pick, citing mean reversion, accelerating AWS growth, retail reacceleration, advertising leverage, and margin expansion. He also comments on tariff and manufacturing policy and the risk that sticky inflation and higher rates could threaten tech stocks.

  • AI capex from major tech companies is $300-400B and not at peak.
  • Mahaney expects AI capex to rise again next year, though at a more moderated pace.
  • He sees a new AI industrial tech cycle with an increasing number of beneficiaries.
  • Amazon is his top pick, with AWS, retail, ads, and margins all improving.
  • Amazon was the worst-performing Mag 7 last year, offering mean reversion.
  • He favors lower tariffs and more US manufacturing to support the AI buildout.
  • He warns sticky inflation and Fed rate hikes could threaten tech stocks.
  • Past top picks included Uber and Google, but Amazon is the current top pick.
Ideas
Mark Mahaney Head of Internet Research, Evercore ISI 0:35
AI capex cycle still has room
The AI-driven capex cycle is not peaking. Major technology companies are spending $300-400 billion on capex, much of it AI-related, and they are seeing good returns, so investment should continue to rise next year, albeit at a more moderate pace. This forms a new industrial tech cycle called AI, with an increasing number of companies positioned to benefit.
AI-SECTOR HIGH
Mark Mahaney Head of Internet Research, Evercore ISI 1:40
Amazon is top pick on reacceleration
Amazon is his top pick because it was the worst-performing Mag 7 last year, creating mean-reversion potential with reasonable valuation. He expects AWS growth to accelerate on broad cloud and AI-enabled cloud demand; retail growth to accelerate due to Big Beautiful Bill benefits, faster delivery, Rufus, agentic commerce, and fresh produce/perishable checkout; retail acceleration to lift advertising; and Prime price increases and higher margins to flow to the bottom line.
AMZN HIGH
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This CNBC video, published January 15, 2026, features Mark Mahaney discussing AI-SECTOR, AMZN. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Mahaney  · Tickers: AI-SECTOR, AMZN