Should You Believe In This Bitcoin Rally? w/ Michael Nadeau

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 15, 2026 at 19:45  |  41:36  |  Milk Road Daily
Speakers
Michael Nadeau — Senior Analyst, ETF.com

Summary

Michael Nadeau of The DeFi Report joins the Milk Road Show to assess whether the recent Bitcoin rally is durable. He argues the move is not yet confirmed, citing weak ETF flows, long-term holder distribution, and a late-stage liquidity cycle. He remains short-term risk-off but long-term bullish, with a macro-low framework for future Bitcoin allocation.

  • Clarity Act postponement and stablecoin-yield fight remain unresolved.
  • Michael Nadeau sees fiscal policy shifting from public-sector spending to private-sector growth.
  • He views global liquidity as late-cycle and rolling over, with a possible 2022-type setup.
  • Bitcoin broke its 50-week moving average in October and needs to reclaim roughly 100k-101k.
  • ETF flows and long-term holder data show insufficient demand for a durable rally.
  • He is watching yield curve control as a bullish signal for crypto risk assets.
  • Long-term he remains bullish and would anchor a future allocation in Bitcoin after a macro low.
Ideas
Michael Nadeau Senior Analyst, ETF.com 0:00
Bitcoin rally likely just a bounce.
Bitcoin broke its 50-week moving average in October, which he treats as bull-market support and confirmation of a wealth-destruction phase. He expected a retrace toward that average around 100k-101k, but the recent bounce looks like an options-positioning unwind/short-liquidation move rather than a durable reversal. He needs weekly closes above the 50-week average to turn it back into support; otherwise he remains risk-off and expects a macro low.
BTC HIGH
Michael Nadeau Senior Analyst, ETF.com 18:30
Yield curve control would lift crypto.
If policymakers clearly implement yield curve control and suppress the long end of the yield curve, real interest rates should fall regardless of other conditions. He views that as a good environment for crypto risk assets and long-duration assets, and it is a key signal he is watching to become more constructive.
Crypto risk assets Long-duration assets MED
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This Milk Road Daily video, published January 15, 2026, features Michael Nadeau discussing BTC, Crypto risk assets, Long-duration assets. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Michael Nadeau  · Tickers: BTC, Crypto risk assets, Long-duration assets