Fed's basically nailed the soft landing from inflation, says Roth Capital's Michael Darda

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 15, 2026 at 19:41  |  5:55  |  CNBC
Speakers
Michael Darda — Chief Economist and Macro Strategist, Roth Capital

Summary

Michael Darda, Roth Capital Partners chief economist and macro strategist, argues the Fed has effectively achieved a soft landing: aggressive rate hikes and well-timed cuts kept the economy out of recession while nominal growth has been stable near 5%. He sees that backdrop as very favorable for asset prices and notes a strong stock market despite last year's tariff shock. He defends Powell and warns that political pressure on the Fed could undermine credibility and lead to inflation and currency instability. The host presses on Fed independence and the risk that markets may be under-pricing future inflation.

  • Michael Darda says the Fed has basically nailed a soft landing.
  • He cites no recession, stable unemployment, and nominal growth around 5%.
  • He views the backdrop as favorable for asset prices and a strong stock market.
  • He praises Powell and warns against political interference in the Fed.
  • He says markets may not be pricing a major inflation or credibility threat.
  • The host raises concerns about Fed independence, higher rates, and future inflation.
  • Venezuela and Iran are cited as examples of countries without central bank independence.
Ideas
Michael Darda Chief Economist and Macro Strategist, Roth Capital 5:51
Soft landing supports U.S. equities.
The Fed has effectively engineered a soft landing: it raised rates aggressively and cut at roughly the right time, the business cycle has carried on without a recession, and unemployment has not accelerated after moving about a percentage point off its lows. Nominal growth has been stable around 5% and is trending in the mid-4% range, which creates a very favorable backdrop for asset prices. He also points to a brilliant stock market even with last year's tariff shock.
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This CNBC video, published January 15, 2026, features Michael Darda discussing SPY. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Michael Darda  · Tickers: SPY