Ideas
Gold trade over for now
The long-term bullish gold trade he favored last year is over for a while; institutions are sitting out the recent surge, which is primarily retail and margin-driven, and while sovereign central-bank buying remains a longer-term support, near-term positioning looks crowded and vulnerable.
Silver rally lacks sovereign backing
Silver is not a reserve asset and is smaller, less liquid, and behaves like 'gold on steroids'; the recent rally is retail-driven without institutional or sovereign backing, so it is unattractive versus gold.
Bitcoin technicals point lower
Bitcoin cannot be valued fundamentally, so he trades it on technicals, and current technicals point more to the downside even though retail/high-net-worth dip buying persists; its correlation to the Nasdaq has risen close to one, reducing its diversification case.
Core S&P 500 buying no longer works
Buying the core S&P 500 is not working because the index is heavily concentrated in the AI/tech trade; if leadership rotates into laggards, the broad index can decline, so investors need a different US equity approach rather than pure beta.
AI infrastructure juice, but ROIC risk
There may be more juice in the AI infrastructure trade, but he warns that spending more money does not necessarily produce good investment returns because ROIC will come down over time as the arms race continues.
Korea watch on US tech rotation
Korea is one to watch: institutional investors have been rotating away from US tech and into Korean heavyweight tech on valuation catch-up, but the trade is also retail-flow-driven and vulnerable to crowded-trade unwinds.
Prefer broad EM over EM ex-China
The most interesting trade has been the shift into broad emerging-market ETFs versus EM ex-China; January saw record inflows into EM ETFs and the momentum likely continues as investors seek diversified non-US exposure.
Prefer broad EM over EM ex-China
The most interesting trade has been the shift into broad emerging-market ETFs versus EM ex-China; January saw record inflows into EM ETFs and the momentum likely continues as investors seek diversified non-US exposure.
HSTECH underperforms on tech unwind
Hang Seng Tech has fallen about 8% over three months versus a 3% gain in the HCI, as the global tech rally unwinds, EV/e-commerce face pressure, software exposure weighs, earnings estimates have been cut 15%, and valuation remains high; the divergence likely stays in the near term.
HK property, financials lead rotation
Hong Kong property and financial stocks are up about 10% in three months, driven by a brighter housing market outlook, IPO market expectations, and investors chasing high dividend yields amid geopolitical tensions; this rotation broadens the market beyond tech.
Gold preferred; possible $6,000
Gold remains one of BofA's most preferred subsectors for 2026; average assumption is $4,500 (32% y/y growth) with possible $6,000 within the year, supported by geopolitical tension, retail/ETF/central-bank buying, and a weaker dollar, though volatility will be larger.
Aluminum supply tight, margins strong
Positive on aluminum because no new supply is coming, Indonesia lacks power and faces supply delays, China's 45 million tonne cap is unlikely to be lifted, and margins are at historical highs, 50% above last year.
Copper demand strong; supply tight
Positive on copper because major countries are competing for strategic reserves, US exchange inventories are six times higher year-on-year, China's new green investment plan is up 40% over five years, grid demand is 40% of copper demand, and supply accidents/depletion support prices.
Miners win from high metal prices
Upstream miners are emerging as the biggest winners from high metal prices; downstream and midstream users are squeezed and cannot pass on costs, while miners are adding production and doing M&A.
Solar hit by weak demand, costs
Cautious on solar as panel installations are expected to fall 25% this year, while high silver and copper prices raise major input costs, pressuring demand and margins.
Silver overvalued versus fundamentals
Prefers gold over silver; silver's fundamental support is around $60-70 versus current nearly $90, and unlike gold it lacks institutional/sovereign backing, with industrial demand mixed.
Bitcoin may be nearing bottom
Crypto may be nearing a bottom after a huge run to $130k led to profit-taking and a sellers' market; catalysts like market-structure legislation and a potentially dovish Kevin Warsh could turn sentiment, but he admits bottoming is unconfirmed.
Multi-asset income demand growing
Multi-asset income is a key regional theme, investing well and growing fast in flows as clients seek diversified solutions.
Europe sees marginal US-outflow demand
Macro backdrop is causing some asset movement away from the US, and Asia-Pacific clients are looking toward European assets to diversify.
China attractive in AI, robotics, EV
China looks attractive across a number of sectors including AI, robotics, and EV; there is a lot of interest coming into the market and growing wealth capital needs new solutions.
Japan equities draw governance-driven interest
Japanese equities are attracting interest due to governance changes, corporate improvements, buybacks, and local government initiatives, with rising real rates pushing investors out of cash into risk assets.
Australia attractive resilient diversification market
Australia is an interesting, resilient economy that has grown reasonably well and is attractive for diversifying into new sectors.
Private CRE offers attractive income
Private commercial real estate is very attractive at these levels; it is a unique asset class with interesting income components and 5-7% yields that are almost investment-grade, and it fits diversified long-term portfolios.
Secondary PE growth continues
Secondary private equity is a growing asset class again this year; it has been a very successful investment, and there is continued client demand for perpetual solutions on the secondary PE side.
Watch China internet VAT risk
There is no immediate sign of a VAT hike on internet companies, but if Beijing needs revenue, large internet companies are an obvious target; software could also be reclassified from services to goods, so it is a regulatory risk to monitor.
Tencent solid, should lead earnings
Tencent earnings should be solid: it is a very diversified business with global leadership in most sectors and almost never disappoints, so it should set the tone for Chinese tech results.
Alibaba cloud returns lag spending
Alibaba's AI/cloud growth dominates headlines but is depressing free cash flow and income; it will invest about $50 billion in cloud over three years while underlying cloud profit is only about $500 million, showing low margins and subsidization; balance sheet is solid but ROI/returns are not coming through.
Memory risk/reward less optimal now
Near-term memory demand is solid and no fresh capacity comes in 2026, but current share prices imply structurally higher memory prices five years out; massive capacity from ultra players in 2027/2028 should rebalance supply-demand, leaving less optimal risk/reward in the upcycle.
Prefer Samsung over SK Hynix
Samsung is a better pick than SK Hynix: SK Hynix's HBM leadership and high expectations are largely priced in, while Samsung as challenger has HBM3E qualification and channel checks suggesting it can close the technological gap, improving its risk profile; SK Hynix still expected to lead HBM4.
Prefer Samsung over SK Hynix
Samsung is a better pick than SK Hynix: SK Hynix's HBM leadership and high expectations are largely priced in, while Samsung as challenger has HBM3E qualification and channel checks suggesting it can close the technological gap, improving its risk profile; SK Hynix still expected to lead HBM4.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 04, 2026,
features Thomas Taw, Wendy, Matty Zhao, Mike Novogratz, Tariq Ahmad, Robert Lee, Jing Jie Yu
discussing GLD, SILVER, BTC, SPY, AIQ, EWY, EEM, EMXC, KWEB, Hong Kong property stocks, Hong Kong financial stocks, Aluminum, COPPER, Gold and copper miners, SOLAR, Multi-asset income, VGK, FXI, EWJ, EWA, Private Commercial Real Estate, Secondary private equity, TCEHY, BABA, Memory chip sector, 005930.KS, 000660.KS.
30 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Thomas Taw,
Wendy,
Matty Zhao,
Mike Novogratz,
Tariq Ahmad,
Robert Lee,
Jing Jie Yu
· Tickers:
GLD,
SILVER,
BTC,
SPY,
AIQ,
EWY,
EEM,
EMXC,
KWEB,
Hong Kong property stocks,
Hong Kong financial stocks,
Aluminum,
COPPER,
Gold and copper miners,
SOLAR,
Multi-asset income,
VGK,
FXI,
EWJ,
EWA,
Private Commercial Real Estate,
Secondary private equity,
TCEHY,
BABA,
Memory chip sector,
005930.KS,
000660.KS
