The ongoing war with Iran is creating a severe oil shock, with oil up 50% for the year and potentially heading to $120 if a ceasefire is not reached.
The market is currently being artificially supported by the release of global strategic petroleum reserves (20 days' worth), masking the true economic danger of the conflict.
If oil spikes to $120, passive index selling will be so aggressive that it will crush all stocks, including energy majors like Exxon and Chevron that would normally benefit from high oil prices.
Despite the macro overhang, three distinct micro themes show fundamental strength and should be bought on war-induced pullbacks: Data Centers, Memory/Semi-Cap Equipment, and Discount Retailers.