The Housing Crisis Already Started. The Data Just Hasn’t Caught Up w/ Melody Wright
Speakers
Melody Wright
— Housing Market Analyst and Commentator
Summary
Housing analyst Melody Wright argues the US housing market is much weaker than official data shows, with undercounted inventory, rising delinquencies, and unreliable data providers. She advocates avoiding 10-year Treasuries and warns a housing downturn could spread to credit markets.
- Melody Wright believes the US housing market is in worse shape than reported, with inventory undercounted by ~25%.
- Delinquencies and foreclosures are rising off historic lows, with distress appearing even in prime loans during spring.
- She says data from Zillow, Redfin, and Realtor.com is unreliable and has been restated, misleading investors.
- Wright is not buying 10-year US Treasuries now due to bond market distrust of the Fed and geopolitical tensions.
- Private credit is dangerously exposed to real estate and could trigger a credit event as capital inflows dry up.
- AI data center construction faces power supply risks that could unwind related real estate and local economies.
- Her on-the-ground research confirms a disconnect between published data and actual market conditions.
Ideas
US housing market is deteriorating fast.
The US housing market is significantly weaker than official data indicates. Inventory is undercounted by about 25%, with many new homes missing from listing sites. Delinquencies are rising off historic lows, including early-stage delinquency in prime loans, which should not happen during the spring selling season. Distress selling is accelerating across many local markets, and foreclosures are set to increase materially by Q4 or Q1 as forbearance and loan modification programs expire. The combination of excess supply, unaffordability, and rising distress suggests home prices will decline, and the selling season next year could be very stressed.
Avoid 10-year Treasury bonds now.
The bond market does not trust the Fed to control mortgage rates, and geopolitical tensions along with strained foreign relations make US 10-year Treasury bonds unattractive. Mortgage rates are dictated by the bond market, not the Fed, and the market is signaling rates should be over 4%. Given current uncertainties, she explicitly states she is not buying 10-year Treasuries right now.
Up Next
This Milk Road Daily video, published June 09, 2026, features Melody Wright discussing ITB, US 10-Year Treasury Bond. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Melody Wright · Tickers: ITB, US 10-Year Treasury Bond