Shipments Are Falling but Revenue Is Exploding? Semiconductor 'Illusion' Warning... What Is the Real Shape of the Cycle? | Industry Analyst Lee Joo-wan

Summary

Industry analyst Lee Joo-wan argues that the strong earnings and price momentum in Korean semiconductors are partly an illusion. He points to the weak won and deliberate production cuts as key drivers, while China's rapidly rising memory share threatens Korean pricing discipline. He also warns that AI data-center capex growth may slow in 2026, pressuring Nvidia's growth and valuation, and discusses KOSPI targets, Korea-discount reform limits, and correction risk.

• Korean semiconductor profits are flattered by the weak won; normalization could cut operating profit.
• Memory price spikes are linked to intentional output cuts, not solely demand.
• China's memory market share is rising fast after a decade of state investment.
• AI data-center capex growth may brake in H2 2026, threatening Nvidia's growth multiple.
• Samsung's memory margin lags SK hynix and Micron despite a higher P/E.
• KOSPI 6,000-7,000 targets depend on Korea-discount reform that looks hard to deliver near term.
• Liquidity and returning foreign flows may support an early-2026 rally, but a correction is widely expected.
• AI software monetization at Google and Microsoft is a key watch item for delaying the capex slowdown.