Oil Access and Power Politics: Inside America’s Venezuela Strategy

Summary

Richard Haass discusses the US military operation that seized Nicolas Maduro and argues the principal US objective in Venezuela is access for American oil companies, not democracy promotion or regime change. He outlines best- and worst-case scenarios for Venezuela, warns of nationalist backlash to oil deals, and traces spillovers to Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, and Greenland. He also says the episode helps Putin, reinforces spheres-of-influence dynamics, and makes a Ukraine peace deal less likely, with the war potentially extending into year five.

• The US military seized Maduro and transported him to New York to face criminal charges.
• Richard Haass says the main US goal in Venezuela is oil access for American companies, not regime change.
• He describes a best case of continuity and economic engagement, and a worst case of disorder and violence.
• He warns that Venezuelan nationalism could later upend oil-sharing arrangements with US companies.
• The discussion covers regional spillovers involving Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, and Greenland.
• Haass sees the episode benefiting Putin and signaling a more regional, spheres-of-influence US posture.
• He expects Ukraine peace negotiations to remain remote and the war to extend into a fifth year.