Crypto in '26: Raoul's Vision or We Get Rekt? | Raoul Pal and Mando | REKT Vision (January 09, 2025)

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 09, 2026 at 23:53  |  58:14  |  Real Vision
Speakers
Raoul Pal — Founder & CEO, Real Vision
Mando — Professional Trader / Macro Analyst

Summary

Mando interviews Raoul Pal about crypto and macro going into 2026. They discuss the AI agent step change, software disruption, human-centered assets like art and collectibles, and crypto's growth potential. Raoul argues liquidity, fiscal stimulus, and debt refinancing support crypto, Bitcoin, metals, and commodities, while explaining the October 2025 crypto dislocation as temporary. They also debate AI-agent-friendly chains, crypto apps, Ethereum's digital-art thesis, and Bittensor.

  • Raoul says short-term markets face tariff and shutdown uncertainty, but forward liquidity and policy clarity are positive.
  • AI agents and vibe coding are seen as a step-change, with implications for software and crypto.
  • Raoul's human-premium thesis favors digital art, NFTs, physical collectibles, and classic cars as AI scales.
  • Raoul sees crypto as temporarily discounted after the October liquidation event and expects it to catch up as liquidity returns.
  • Bitcoin is framed as cheap versus liquidity/NASDAQ, with a possible $140k-$160k fair value.
  • Mando expects a Bitcoin bounce toward $100k over the next month and high-beta altcoin performance.
  • Raoul favors gold/metals, commodities, and commodity currencies on easing financial conditions and cyclical recovery.
  • They flag AI-agent chains like Solana and Sui, crypto app-layer names like Hyperliquid, and Bittensor as AI-training-linked crypto trades.
Ideas
Mando Rekt co-founder and author of the Mando Minutes newsletter 22:16
Human-made collectibles gain scarcity value.
AI and humanoid robots should make manufactured goods cheap and abundant, while intricately made human items, artisan skills, and physical collectibles become scarcer. Mando thinks art and physical collectibles with a human element will be worth more because AI cannot replicate the realness and human connection.
Raoul Pal Founder & CEO, Real Vision 22:53
AI age makes digital art valuable.
In an AI-driven age, human-created digital artifacts become extremely valuable, especially for a digitally native young cohort and as crypto wealth grows from about $3T to $100T. Raoul has been buying NFTs/digital art as a long-term quality buy-and-hold, not flipping, and recently bought an XCOPY one-of-one at a discount.
Mando Rekt co-founder and author of the Mando Minutes newsletter 23:57
AI agent step-change revives AI trade.
The new Claude/agentic coding model is a step-change beyond prior LLMs; vibe coding lets non-developers build apps and automate tasks, so AI agents may finally have their moment this year. Mando is more bullish again on the AI trade as Anthropic raises at $350B and all major model providers launch new models.
Raoul Pal Founder & CEO, Real Vision 29:10
Bittensor benefits from AI training demand.
Raoul says Barry Silbert is likely right on Bittensor; the weekly chart shows a killer base/flag with a bottom, and a big price move could follow. Bittensor is a rewards mechanism for training AI models, tying it to the AI model-training theme, though Raoul does not own it and follows with interest.
Raoul Pal Founder & CEO, Real Vision 30:17
AI agents favor Solana and Sui.
AI agents and agent payments will require high processing speed and throughput, which Raoul says favors Solana and Sui over Ethereum, though layer-twos may also participate. Raoul later says he mainly holds Sui among these.
Mando Rekt co-founder and author of the Mando Minutes newsletter 31:11
Crypto apps beat L1s via AI.
Mando is more bullish on crypto apps than L1s because L1 price action has not been aggressive enough even with the DAT trade and tradfi valuation metrics are not being applied. App-layer protocols such as Hyperliquid could integrate AI agents and drive large revenue increases, for example via AI-generated memes on pump.fun.
Raoul Pal Founder & CEO, Real Vision 34:32
Iconic vintage cars appreciate as petrol ends.
Each generation eventually buys the iconic cars of its youth, and as petrol cars are phased out, vintage/iconic cars become scarce collectibles. Raoul cites Land Rover Defenders, noting rebuilt ones can trade around $150k in the US, and says to find iconic cars and hold them.
Raoul Pal Founder & CEO, Real Vision 39:28
Business cycle up lifts commodities.
Raoul's simple macro outlook is that the business cycle goes up and commodities go up, part of the traditional cyclical trade that also leads inflation to crawl higher over time.
Raoul Pal Founder & CEO, Real Vision 40:55
Commodity cycle lifts AUD and CAD.
In the commodity/cyclical macro world, the Australian and Canadian dollars rise as part of the typical cyclical trade and commodity upcycle.
Raoul Pal Founder & CEO, Real Vision 42:39
Gold and metals rally with easing conditions.
Gold follows current financial conditions and leads liquidity by about 12 months; interest payments require financial conditions to ease, and liquidity follows. Raoul says the metals trade is not done and can run to the end of the year, though he would be cautious if ISM nears 60.
Raoul Pal Founder & CEO, Real Vision 45:29
Bitcoin discount closes as liquidity returns.
Bitcoin should be around $140k-$160k if it had tracked the NASDAQ and Everything Code liquidity charts. It decoupled after the October 10 forced deleveraging, when market makers lost API access and exchanges absorbed alt liquidations; Raoul says the resulting discount is temporary and should close as liquidity returns fully.
Mando Rekt co-founder and author of the Mando Minutes newsletter 47:58
Bitcoin bounces to 100K; alts outperform.
Mando reduced crypto exposure but rotated slightly back; BTC held above 80 and now has a good chance to rally back to 100K over the next month. If Bitcoin moves 10%, altcoins will likely move even more, so he sees a decent high-beta crypto bounce.
Raoul Pal Founder & CEO, Real Vision 50:14
Ethereum benefits from digital art growth.
Raoul holds a lot of ETH because his large digital-art/NFT holdings are on Ethereum, and he thinks the ETH case is strong over the next 10 years if crypto wealth grows from $3T to $100T and digital artifacts become ultra-valuable.
Up Next

This Real Vision video, published January 09, 2026, features Mando, Raoul Pal discussing Physical collectibles, ART, Digital art, NFTS, AIQ, TAO, SOL, SUI, HYPE, Classic cars, Land Rover Defenders, DBC, AUD, CAD, GLD, XME, BTC, ALTCOINS, ETH. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mando, Raoul Pal  · Tickers: Physical collectibles, ART, Digital art, NFTS, AIQ, TAO, SOL, SUI, HYPE, Classic cars, Land Rover Defenders, DBC, AUD, CAD, GLD, XME, BTC, ALTCOINS, ETH