Assets That Will 'Go Berserk' Once Iran Conflict Ignites | Jeff Clark
Summary
- Context: The discussion takes place in March 2026. Gold is trading around $5,000/oz, having recently experienced high volatility ($200 daily swings).
- Geopolitics: There is an imminent threat of kinetic war involving the US, Israel, and Iran, with two aircraft carrier strike groups positioned in the region.
- Macro Thesis: Despite hitting nominal highs, Gold is at 10-year lows relative to the NASDAQ. Clark believes the "Great Rotation" from general equities to resources has not yet occurred.
- Miners: Gold producers have cleaned up balance sheets (approaching net debt zero) and are seeing record margin expansion because gold prices have outpaced inflationary cost increases.
- Contrarian View: Clark is avoiding Platinum and Palladium, viewing them strictly as industrial assets rather than monetary hedges, despite the commodities boom.
Trade Ideas
Clark points out that major producers have "lower debt levels tremendously" and "high cash levels." However, they are facing a reserve cliff (fewer discoveries). He notes, "Majors need ounces... you got to buy a million ounces or find a million ounces just to stay even." Because it is often cheaper and faster to buy ounces (M&A) than to explore and permit new mines (which takes 10+ years), majors with record free cash flow will inevitably acquire junior companies with proven, high-quality resources in safe jurisdictions. LONG. Focus on Juniors/Developers (represented by GDXJ) rather than just Majors, as they offer the takeover premium. Management execution risk; holding "lifestyle companies" that never actually prove a resource.
Jeff Clark
Founder, TheGoldAdvisor.com
Clark notes that while Gold is at $5,000, the Gold-to-NASDAQ ratio is near 10-year lows. He states, "In my opinion, there has not been a rotation... from Main Street, Wall Street into the gold sector." Regarding Silver, he notes a "deficit for 5 years in counting" and falling Comex/LBMA inventories. The market is currently pricing Gold based on fear/geopolitics, but not yet on a structural asset allocation shift. If a kinetic war with Iran begins ("missiles in the air"), Clark predicts commodities will "go berserk." Furthermore, Silver historically lags Gold initially but outperforms in the later stages of a bull market due to the supply/demand crunch. LONG. The setup is a "mania" phase driven by war fears and debt, supported by a lack of institutional ownership. A deflationary "waterfall crash" in general markets could drag metals down temporarily before they rebound.
Jeff Clark
Founder, TheGoldAdvisor.com
Clark is "very bullish on copper, very bullish on uranium." He cites a "perfect storm" of supply/demand imbalances, political support, environmental mandates, and the "data center buildout." Unlike precious metals which are monetary hedges, these are structural infrastructure plays. The demand for electricity (Uranium) and electrification/data transmission (Copper) is hitting a wall of insufficient supply. Clark explicitly looks for companies "directly in the path" of this trend. LONG. These sectors are breaking out but haven't peaked. Global economic slowdown reducing industrial demand.
Jeff Clark
Founder, TheGoldAdvisor.com
Clark states, "I'm not going to own them as for money reasons... I'm not looking too closely at equities that are in those two metal areas." He notes they are "90-95% industrial." Clark's primary thesis for the current supercycle is monetary debasement, debt, and war hedging. Platinum and Palladium lack the "monetary premium" of Gold/Silver and are too dependent on the health of the industrial economy (specifically auto manufacturing), making them poor hedges in a stagflationary or recessionary environment. AVOID. A sudden industrial boom or supply shock in South Africa/Russia could spike prices temporarily.
Jeff Clark
Founder, TheGoldAdvisor.com
Clark admits, "I have a very high cash balance." This is a strategic hedge. In 2008 and 2020, liquidity crunches caused all assets (including gold) to sell off initially. Holding cash allows an investor to survive a "total wipeout waterfall crash" and provides the dry powder to buy high-quality assets at distressed prices (as he did in March 2020). LONG (as a portfolio allocation, not a primary growth driver). Hyperinflation eroding purchasing power of cash rapidly.
