The US Economy: Different on the Surface and Inside... Interest Rate Fear Created by Fake Indicators | Hong Seon-ae, Moon Hong-cheol, DB Securities Asset Strategy Team Leaders

Summary

Moon Hong-cheol, DB Securities Asset Strategy Team Lead, argues that US economic indicators are misleading, with employment overstated. He sees selling exhaustion in Korean memory chips, with potential upside if big tech earnings assessments turn positive. He also expects the Korean won to strengthen and oil to decline as war supply fears fade.

• US employment data likely overstated due to AI-driven startup surge, not reflecting real job market weakness.
• Fed may over-tighten based on flawed data but eventually pivot.
• Korean memory semiconductor selling pressure from CTAs nearly exhausted, awaiting big tech earnings evaluation for upside.
• KRW should strengthen toward mid-1,400 as foreign selling of KOSPI stocks ends.
• Oil prices remain elevated on geopolitical fears but underlying supply surplus points to decline post-conflict.
• Yen weakness is driven by Japanese institutional outflows, not fundamentals; carry trade unwind risk exists but no imminent crisis.
• Advises not to fear rate hikes for AI/semiconductor investments.