Bits + Bips: Equities at All-Time Highs, Bearish Crypto Derivatives, and the New Easy Money Trade

Summary

Steve Erlick interviews Josh Lim, co-head of markets at Falcon X, about the intersection of crypto and macro. They discuss Bitcoin's range-bound price action driven by miner selling and institutional buying, bearish signals in Bitcoin derivatives, and the relative strength of Ethereum versus Solana. The conversation also covers seasonal inflows from tax refunds, the growth of on-chain real-world asset trading, and the long-term implications of quantum computing on Bitcoin.

• Bitcoin is trading in a range due to miner selling pressure and MicroStrategy's persistent buying.
• Bitcoin derivatives show low implied volatility and negative funding rates, indicating bearish sentiment.
• Ethereum is recovering relative to Solana as DeFi and RWA narratives strengthen.
• Tax refunds are providing seasonal liquidity to crypto and other risk assets.
• On-chain venues like Hyperliquid are gaining traction for 24/7 trading of tokenized real-world assets.
• The quantum computing threat could force a hard fork in Bitcoin, creating market uncertainty.
• Altcoins may face regulatory changes that treat them as securities, concentrating capital in revenue-generating tokens.
• Traders are exploring arbitrage opportunities between on-chain and traditional markets for commodities.