Korea's Future Is Taiwan, Not Japan? Cho Young-moo, Director of NH Financial Research Institute (Part 2)

Summary

In Part 2 of the interview, Cho Young-moo, Director of NH Financial Research Institute, argues that Korea's weak economic growth momentum and falling potential growth are the fundamental causes of sustained won weakness and elevated USD/KRW. He compares Korea's semiconductor-driven polarization to Taiwan, warning of social and structural risks. He also discusses Taiwan's power and water bottlenecks for semiconductor production, suggesting Korea could turn this into an opportunity through fiscal infrastructure investment, and advises watching macro variables rather than predicting Trump.

• Won weakness is attributed to Korea's falling growth potential, not individual investors or BOK policy alone.
• Cho expects USD/KRW to stay high and sees Korean equities as unattractive due to weak company competitiveness and low expected returns.
• Korea's economy is increasingly resembling Taiwan's semiconductor-dominated structure, with rising polarization and youth emigration concerns.
• Taiwan's semiconductor industry faces power and water bottlenecks through 2028, a key supply-chain risk.
• Cho suggests Korea could attract global data centers by investing in power and water infrastructure.
• He advises focusing on macro variables like rates, inflation, and growth rather than trying to predict Trump's actions.
• 2026 US 250th anniversary and midterms may encourage unpredictable Trump actions.