Interest rates already reflected in the market?" Contrarian thinking towards 9000P | Vincent, Hana Securities Analyst [Vincent's Checkpoint]

Summary

In this monthly checkup, Hana Securities Director Kim Doo-won (Vincent) discusses the accelerating KOSPI rally driven by Samsung and SK Hynix, argues that interest rate hikes are already priced in, and recommends contrarian exposure to beaten-down sectors like KOSDAQ biotech. He maintains a strong bullish stance on memory semiconductors as a structural infrastructure and national security play, expecting further re-rating and foreign individual inflows.

• KOSPI has risen rapidly from 7,000 to 8,000 in just 13 trading days, and the speaker expects 9,000 soon.
• Market breadth is extremely narrow, with only Samsung and SK Hynix leading; most other stocks lag.
• The speaker believes the consensus on aggressive rate hikes is overdone and rates are already reflected in the market.
• SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are seen as structural infrastructure and national security assets, not cyclical stocks.
• Foreign institutional inflows are expected to remain absent, but foreign individual investors may step in due to tax advantages on long-term holdings.
• The speaker recommends a contrarian watch on KOSDAQ biotech as a candidate for rotation if rate fears ease.
• Earnings estimates for Q2 and beyond continue to be revised upward, supporting the rally.
• The speaker dismisses comparisons to past bubbles, arguing that AI-driven demand is a new paradigm.