SpaceX rebound: the real reason for the sudden stock surge and whether Q3 profit is thanks to Starlink | Jeong Eui-hoon, Researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities

Summary

Jeong Eui-hoon, a researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities, explains why SpaceX rebounded after its lockup release and Q2 earnings. He breaks down SpaceX's three business segments—launch, Starlink, and AI—and argues that new AI data-center leasing revenue should turn the AI segment into a profit driver. He recommends accumulating SpaceX gradually for long-term growth despite high volatility.

• The first SpaceX lockup release has begun but will continue monthly through year-end, and much of the overhang was already priced in.
• Q2 results initially disappointed due to heavy capex, but all business segments beat market expectations and sentiment turned positive.
• Starlink is the largest and most profitable segment, accounting for 50-60% of revenue with near 40% operating margin.
• AI was the biggest drag due to heavy capex on Grok and X, but new AI compute leasing revenue in Q2 began to change the profit picture.
• Anthropic rented Colossus 1 capacity, contributing about $1.3 billion in Q2 revenue; Q3 AI lease revenue could reach $3.7-3.8 billion or more.
• The CFO guided no further capex increase and expects capex payback within one year, supporting expectations for Q3 profit and wider Q4 profit.
• Forward valuation is lower than the 100x trailing PSR, possibly around 15-20x on next year's revenue.