Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists on MSA Safety: a hidden quality compounder? $MSA

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 30, 2026 at 11:50  |  45:06  |  Yet Another Value Podcast
Speakers
Craig Larkin — Columbia Business School MBA student; Pershing Square Challenge finalist
EJ Karobath — Columbia Business School MBA student; Pershing Square Challenge finalist
Bob McGrane — Columbia Business School MBA student; Pershing Square Challenge finalist
Andrew Walker — Host, Yet Another Value Blog

Summary

Team MSA presents its Pershing Square Challenge pitch on MSA Safety, arguing it is an underfollowed, high-quality worker-safety compounder trading at a reasonable multiple. The bull case rests on a connected subscription shift in portable gas detection, an upcoming legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle, tier-one fire department halo effects, and capital allocation benefits after a 2023 product-liability divestiture. Management's conservative mid-single-digit guidance and the long 2028-2030 payoff lead the host to question whether the stock is undervalued or fairly priced. The team's base case calls for roughly $350 per share by 2030 from about $160.

  • MSA Safety pitched as a quality pure-play worker-safety compounder.
  • Portable gas detection is moving to connected MSA Plus subscriptions.
  • SCBA replacement cycle and G1/FireGrid products could drive share gains.
  • Tier-one fire department wins may pull surrounding departments to MSA.
  • 2023 product-liability divestiture freed capital and improved ROIC prospects.
  • Team's base case targets about $350 by 2030 versus about $160 now.
  • Host pushes back on valuation, mid-single-digit growth and long payoff.
  • Team conducted primary research with management, firefighters, Reddit and job-board data.
Ideas
EJ Karobath Columbia Business School MBA student; Pershing Square Challenge finalist 8:53
Underfollowed MSA offers informational edge.
MSA is underfollowed, with only about eight analysts covering it and a business model that is simple enough to understand but not a household name. The team found a discrepancy between superficial disclosures and the real story in connected gas detection and SCBA replacement cycles, which they believe gives them an informational edge and suggests the market may be underappreciating the company.
MSA MED
Bob McGrane Columbia Business School MBA student; Pershing Square Challenge finalist 12:30
Connected gas detection lifts recurring margins.
MSA's portable gas detection is moving from standalone beeping hardware to connected worker devices and MSA Plus subscription software that alerts nearby workers and central supervisors, automates incident reporting, and improves safety. This creates recurring, higher-margin revenue and more revenue per device over its lifespan, plus a share-gain opportunity because MSA has a large installed base, durable owned-sensor hardware, and is one of only three scale competitors with connectivity.
MSA HIGH
Craig Larkin Columbia Business School MBA student; Pershing Square Challenge finalist 23:46
Quality compounder with doubles potential.
MSA Safety is a high-quality pure-play worker-safety compounder trading around 20x earnings rather than at a premium; the team models roughly 7% revenue growth and a 22x forward multiple, producing a base case of about $350 per share by 2030 from roughly $160 now. A reverse DCF implies the current price only assumes about 3% revenue growth and no margin expansion, while the market treats the connected-detection subscription shift and legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle as call options rather than base-case drivers.
MSA HIGH
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This Yet Another Value Podcast video, published June 30, 2026, features EJ Karobath, Bob McGrane, Craig Larkin discussing MSA. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: EJ Karobath, Bob McGrane, Craig Larkin  · Tickers: MSA