Name: Microsoft can monetize AI better than any software company, says Jefferies' Brent Thill
Uploaded: 2026-01-29T02:45:19+00:00
Duration: 310 s

Speakers

Brent Thill — Analyst, Jefferies

Summary

Brent Thill of Jefferies joins Closing Bell Overtime to discuss Microsoft and Meta earnings. He says Microsoft's quarter was stable and its OpenAI backlog concentration is an overhang, but he likes the diverse business and AI monetization. He is positive on Meta's revenue beat and guidance, and sees Oracle as underloved short-term despite OpenAI-related concerns.

Microsoft shares fell as investors focused on OpenAI's 45% share of backlog.
Thill called Microsoft's quarter stable with good backlog and improving margins.
He believes Microsoft can monetize AI better than any software company.
Meta beat revenue, gave strong top-line guidance, and lacks Microsoft's OpenAI overhang.
Thill said Oracle needed the OpenAI deal and faces hurdles but is underloved short-term.
He expects Microsoft and Oracle to rise over time if OpenAI meets commitments.

Ideas

Brent Thill Analyst, Jefferies 1:01

Like Microsoft; OpenAI backlog fears overdone.

Microsoft reported stable Azure and Office 365 numbers with a good backlog, and while investors are worried about OpenAI representing 45% of backlog and whether OpenAI can pay its obligations to Microsoft and others, Thill thinks those concerns are overdone. He likes Microsoft because it is a more diverse business across applications, security, and Azure infrastructure, margins are improving under CFO Amy Hood, Nadella has led well, and it can monetize AI better than any software company by infusing AI across its layers. He expects the stock to move higher over time.

Brent Thill Analyst, Jefferies 2:14

Meta blows out; no OpenAI overhang.

Meta blew out revenue, guidance for top-line growth is incredible, and although expenses are higher they are not as bad as feared. Thill says Meta can earn $30 per share and a 30x multiple gets you to about $900, and unlike Microsoft it does not have the OpenAI overhang.

Brent Thill Analyst, Jefferies 3:16

Oracle underloved; OpenAI fears overdone.

Oracle's backlog is also heavily exposed to OpenAI, but Thill says Oracle is a different company from Microsoft: it is coming from behind, needed the $300 billion OpenAI deal to get on the AI map, and still has more hurdles to clear. He calls Oracle underloved and over-kicked short-term on OpenAI fear, and expects that if OpenAI follows through on its commitments, both Microsoft and Oracle should move higher over time.

This CNBC video, published January 29, 2026, features Brent Thill discussing MSFT, META, ORCL. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Brent Thill · Tickers: MSFT, META, ORCL

Microsoft can monetize AI better than any software company, says Jefferies' Brent Thill

Summary

Ideas

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