Exchange Rate War Declared: If the Exchange Rate Cannot Be Stopped in January Next Year, Everything Will Collapse! / Will a Second Currency Crisis Return? | Dr. Kim Dae-ho

Summary

Dr. Kim Dae-ho, director of the Global Economic Research Institute, joins host Park Geun-hyung to discuss the Korean government's exchange-rate defense. Kim argues the government's FX war has achieved some short-term success in defending the year-end rate and breaking panic psychology, but January 2026 is critical because a failed defense could cause USD/KRW to rebound sharply. He also reviews National Pension Service hedging, Korea's net-creditor position, January dollar inflows, and fundamental measures needed for long-term FX stability.

• Government is defending the USD/KRW rate near 1,500 won with strong verbal intervention.
• Short-term FX psychology and year-end defense have partly succeeded, but medium-term stabilization is not secured.
• January 2026 is critical because a failed defense could reverse gains and cause a sharp USD/KRW rebound.
• National Pension Service FX hedging can create dollar inflows, but Kim argues it should be based on pension returns, not FX policy.
• Korea's large reserves and net-creditor position make an IMF-style crisis unlikely.
• January seasonal exporter conversions and possible repatriation by Korean retail investors in US equities may support the won.
• Fundamental stabilization requires restraining money supply, fiscal expansion, and excessive corporate overseas investment.