4 Bullish Signals for Crypto Despite Regulatory Uncertainty w/ David Duong

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 16, 2026 at 19:45  |  32:25  |  Milk Road Daily
Speakers
David Duong — Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase

Summary

David Duong, Coinbase's Head of Institutional Research, joins the Milk Road Show to assess crypto's setup despite the stalled Clarity Act. He argues the regulatory setback is less important than improving liquidity, technicals, and a potential $140 billion tariff-refund stimulus that could benefit risk assets. Duong remains constructive on crypto and Bitcoin into 2026, expects more Fed cuts than futures price, and warns that DAT discounts may persist.

  • Clarity Act draft stalled amid bank lobbying and stablecoin-reward disputes; 2026 market-structure bill odds fell to about 50%.
  • Duong remains constructive on crypto for at least Q1 2026, citing improving market-maker liquidity and reversal of tax-loss selling.
  • A Supreme Court tariff rejection could force return of $135B-$140B to importers, acting as backdoor fiscal stimulus for risk assets.
  • DAT MNAV discounts may persist because MSCI's pause does not restore passive index demand and dilution remains punitive.
  • Duong expects two 25bp Fed cuts in 2026 and possibly more, arguing Fed funds futures underprice easing.
  • Bitcoin has catch-up room after lagging gold and stocks, with the $95k-$100k zone as key technical resistance.
  • Altcoins and privacy tokens are mentioned as potential beneficiaries if Bitcoin momentum improves.
Ideas
David Duong Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase 17:07
DAT discounts persist; dilution punitive.
Duong expects MNAV discounts on digital asset treasury companies (DATs) to persist even after MSCI paused its exclusion because the decision does not restore passive index demand or automatic scaling with new issuance. He argues investors can rationally refuse to pay premiums while MSCI review uncertainty remains, and weaker absorption of future equity issuance makes dilution punitive.
DATS MED
David Duong Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase 21:34
Fed underpricing cuts; long futures.
Duong believes the Fed will cut rates and deliver two 25bp cuts in 2026, with potential for deeper cuts, even though sell-side forecasts are dispersed. He argues weak labor and housing conditions will take precedence over other mandate concerns amid a disinflationary trend, and thinks 50bp of cuts should be baked in; Fed fund futures pricing less than 50bp makes him out of consensus.
Fed funds futures HIGH
David Duong Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase 26:45
Bitcoin has catch-up room.
Duong says Bitcoin's store-of-value role was damaged by the 10/10 event, leaving it lagging gold, silver, and stocks on a risk-adjusted basis. He sees catch-up room as the 90-day z-score has returned to neutral while crypto remains behind global M2/lagged liquidity; technically, BTC needs to clear the $95k-$100k area, with accumulation around $96k-$98k, before momentum plays become comfortable.
BTC HIGH
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This Milk Road Daily video, published January 16, 2026, features David Duong discussing DATS, Fed funds futures, BTC. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: David Duong  · Tickers: DATS, Fed funds futures, BTC