Claude Code, Stablecoin Adoption, and 2026 Trends | Weekly Roundup

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 16, 2026 at 18:44  |  1:14:13  |  Empire
Speakers
Rob — General Partner, Dragonfly
Santiago R. Santos — Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital

Summary

The hosts discuss the rapid adoption of AI coding tools like Claude Code and their disruptive impact on SaaS and venture investing. They analyze Rain's growth and moat in stablecoin-backed cards, Visa's stablecoin settlement strategy, and the evolving crypto venture landscape. Other topics include defense tech investing, prediction markets, and X API changes affecting attention markets.

  • Claude Code and AI tools are changing software engineering and SaaS economics.
  • Rain's Visa principal membership and regulatory licenses create a short-term monopoly in stablecoin cards.
  • Visa is expanding stablecoin settlement and Visa Direct as fund flows move off traditional rails.
  • Crypto venture is seeing a hollowing out of the middle, with generalists and specialists favored.
  • Defense technology ETF SHLD was bought as a play on global unrest.
  • Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are growing rapidly.
  • X API policy changes may affect crypto attention markets like Kaito.
Ideas
Santiago R. Santos Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital 5:07
Watch SaaS valuations after AI-driven multiple compression.
Santiago notes SaaS price-to-sales multiples have collapsed from 30-35x to around 5x for companies like Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot, Okta, and Workday as AI coding tools like Claude Code disrupt software engineering. He sees potential value but is cautious because customers are resisting price hikes on renewal and AI tools are cheap. He is paying attention to the setup.
SAAS MED
Rob General Partner, Dragonfly 12:35
Buy defense tech ETF on global unrest.
Rob bought SHLD, the defense technology ETF, for the first time in size and his first sector-specific ETF in a long time. He wants to be long three themes: innovation in crypto, innovation in AI, and global unrest. SHLD expresses the defense/global unrest leg, and he says those are the things to be along right now.
SHLD HIGH
Rob General Partner, Dragonfly 12:58
Be long AI innovation and adoption.
Rob views innovation in AI as one of three things to be long. He says AI is eating everything, the pace of change is rapid, and organizations will keep spending on AI tools even if current implementations are imperfect.
AI-SECTOR MED
Rob General Partner, Dragonfly 16:47
Rain has durable moat in stablecoin cards.
Rain has a full-package moat in stablecoin cards: best tech, rare regulatory licenses including MTLS, international relationships, and a principal member relationship with Visa that lets it act as direct issuer and capture nearly 100% of interchange economics while settling with Visa in stablecoins 24/7/365. It has 200+ customers, no customer concentration, grew over 40x in a year (and much more over 15 months), and raised a $250M Series C led by Iconic. Competitors like Bridge/Stripe have tried for a year without success, giving Rain a short-term monopoly.
RAIN HIGH
Rob General Partner, Dragonfly 20:48
Visa benefits from stablecoin settlement growth.
Visa is future-proofing itself as fund flows move off traditional bank rails. Visa Direct is the fastest-growing part of transaction volume, and Visa's direct stablecoin settlement (announced $3B annualized) should grow tremendously this year. It has a symbiotic relationship with Rain and benefits from stablecoin adoption.
V MED
Rob General Partner, Dragonfly 33:55
Polymarket is fastest-growing prediction market leader.
Polymarket is one of the two fastest-growing companies in Rob's portfolio. The founders built something ahead of its time and showed grit through the bear market. It is one of the largest prediction markets along with Kalshi, with a head start though not an indefensible moat, and benefits from strong demand for prediction markets.
POLYMARKET MED
Rob General Partner, Dragonfly 68:33
Watch Kaito after X API policy change.
X's API policy change banning apps that reward users for posting will affect attention markets like Kaito and Noise.xyz. Rob thinks they are going to be affected but says we'll have to see how it plays out. This is a negative watch on Kaito.
KAITO LOW
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This Empire video, published January 16, 2026, features Santiago R. Santos, Rob discussing SAAS, SHLD, AI-SECTOR, RAIN, V, POLYMARKET, KAITO. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Santiago R. Santos, Rob  · Tickers: SAAS, SHLD, AI-SECTOR, RAIN, V, POLYMARKET, KAITO