A China quer ter moeda de reserva global, mas…

Summary

Fernando Ulrich analyzes China’s ambition to make the yuan a global reserve currency and argues the project remains distant. He reviews China’s balance of payments, capital controls, FX intervention, and yuan usage in SWIFT payments and trade finance. He concludes the yuan cannot replace the dollar without financial-account opening and free floating, and dismisses the idea of a yuan backed by gold.

• China wants the yuan to become a global reserve currency.
• Capital controls and opaque external accounts limit yuan internationalization.
• PBoC and state banks intervene to prevent yuan appreciation.
• Yuan’s share in SWIFT global payments has fallen below 3%.
• The dollar still dominates trade finance at about 80%.
• China has increased gold reserves, but a yuan-gold link is seen as unlikely.
• Replacing the dollar would require major Chinese financial reforms.