Samsung Electronics/SK Hynix and S&P 500 both have earnings surprises: why the stock market is holding up despite macro fears | Hong Seonae, Kim Han-jin, 3PRO TV Economists

Summary

Economist Kim Han-jin argues that the stock market is holding up because earnings, especially from semiconductors and S&P 500 companies, are strong enough to offset deteriorating macro conditions. He views the July-August semiconductor selloff as a supply-demand and positioning shock rather than a fundamental breakdown. Macro risks such as rising long-end Treasury yields and credit stress require vigilance, but near-term recession risk remains low and AI capex is unlikely to collapse quickly.

• July-August semiconductor weakness was attributed to crowding and leverage, not earnings fundamentals.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reported extreme profit growth, and semiconductor and S&P 500 valuations became cheaper despite higher share prices.
• Kim sees near-term US recession probability below 30%, with 50,000-60,000 monthly jobs still consistent with about 2% GDP growth.
• Long-term Treasury yields are at key technical levels, with 10-year 5.0% and 30-year 5.3% being watched.
• BBB and high yield credit stress is approaching 2022 levels, requiring caution but not signaling an immediate break.
• The Fed is unlikely to hike in September; a first hike is possible in December, with consecutive hikes unlikely.