ANDRÉ JAKURSKI: LIÇÕES IMPERDÍVEIS DE QUASE 50 ANOS DE MERCADO | Market Makers #380

Summary

André Jakurski, founding partner of Pactual and JGP, shares his nearly 50-year market wisdom, focusing on managing uncertainty rather than predicting the future. He discusses major global risks: explosive public debt, demographic decline, and the possibility of a 'neutron bomb' event where creditors lose while real assets survive. He expresses optimism about artificial intelligence as a transformative productivity force, caution on US equities after a huge run, and a skeptical view of China and Brazil. He identifies a current opportunity in Brazilian tax-exempt bonds before the tax distortion disappears.

• Jakurski believes it's impossible to predict the future; investors must adapt to uncertainty.
• Rising global debt and aging demographics pose long-term threats that could lead to a debt crisis hurting creditors.
• He is extremely bullish on AI's ability to drive productivity and offset population decline.
• US 10-year Treasuries have posted severe real losses since 2020 and remain unattractive as a crisis may further erode bondholder wealth.
• Brazil's economic outlook is mediocre due to poor demographics, low productivity, and extortionate real rates that will trigger credit problems.
• Tax-exempt fixed-income instruments in Brazil (LCI, LCA, CRI, CRA) offer an attractive window of opportunity before the tax distortion is closed.
• China's export-driven model and debt overhang are causing deflationary pressures globally, weakening its growth prospects.
• Successful trading requires fear, humility, rigorous risk management, and the ability to forget losses quickly.