Buzzberg Cup Live

Semiconductors Devour Corporate Earnings... Ultimately Shaken by a ‘Macro Punch’ㅣHong Seon-ae, Kim Han-jin, 3PRO TV Economist

기업 실적이 다 씹어먹는 반도체… 결국 '매크로 한 방'에 흔들린다ㅣ홍선애, 김한진 삼프로TV 이코노미스트 [여의도 인사이트]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 30, 2026 at 09:08  |  43:14  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Kim Han-jin — Economist

Summary

Economist Kim Han-jin reviews the first half of 2024, highlighting semiconductor dominance driven by AI memory demand. He argues Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are still cheap despite huge gains, while oil prices are set to fall on rising supply. He also expects long-term US bond yields to stay high due to heavy issuance, and sees the Korean won as fundamentally undervalued. Macro risks remain but the market is still micro-driven by semiconductor earnings.

  • Semiconductors led global markets in 1H 2024, with Samsung and SK hynix surging on AI-driven memory demand
  • Korean memory stocks remain cheap at low P/E multiples, supported by explosive earnings growth and inelastic data center capex
  • Crude oil faces downward pressure from increased supply (Iran, UAE, Kuwait) and subdued China/India demand
  • Long-term US yields likely to stay elevated due to persistent bond supply, weighing on the economy gradually
  • The Korean won at 1550/USD appears undervalued, but structural flows keep it weak for now
  • The Fed will likely hold rates as falling oil eases inflation, with cuts not expected until mid-2024
  • Market remains focused on semiconductor earnings; meaningful macro-driven correction not imminent
Ideas
Kim Han-jin Economist 3:17
Samsung, SK Hynix still cheap on surging AI memory earnings
Korean memory semiconductor stocks Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remain undervalued despite massive year-to-date rallies of 130% and 300% respectively. Earnings are surging nearly sevenfold this year versus last year, while P/E multiples remain very low (Samsung around 6x, KOSPI at 8.5x). The core driver is AI data center capex creating an unprecedented demand bottleneck for memory, with memory's share of data center cost rising from under 10% to 50% this year and potentially 70% next year. If data center investment continues as planned, demand will stay inelastic even if chip prices rise, sustaining supernormal profits. The consensus among analysts is that a meaningful cyclical peak may appear in the second half but no crash is expected, and a bubble phase has not yet started.
005930.KS 000660.KS HIGH
Kim Han-jin Economist 22:24
Oil to fall as supply surges, easing inflation
Crude oil prices are likely to decline further, possibly below $60, as supply increases significantly. Iran sanctions have eased allowing exports, the UAE has left OPEC+, and Kuwait is also expanding production. The International Energy Agency projects that next year supply will rise by 8 million barrels per day versus demand growth of only 2 million. India and China demand is not strong. The uptick in May CPI was largely due to a temporary gasoline price spike, and falling oil will alleviate inflation pressure, helping the Fed hold rates steady.
WTI HIGH
Kim Han-jin Economist 28:39
Long-term bond yields stay high on heavy supply
US long-term Treasury yields will remain elevated and not fall easily, despite declining inflation, because of heavy bond supply in the market. The large fiscal deficit and ongoing issuance create a supply overhang that keeps long-term rates high. This persistent rate pressure will gradually weigh on the economy, particularly housing and weaker consumer sectors, and could eventually force the Fed to consider easing only later in 2024. In the meantime, long bond prices face headwinds.
US Long-dated Treasuries MED
Kim Han-jin Economist 38:07
USD/KRW overvalued, won to strengthen over time
The Korean won appears fundamentally undervalued at the current level of around 1550 won per dollar. Korea's current account surplus and overall economic strength fully justify a stronger currency, yet structural factors such as US-bound corporate investment flows and high energy import dependency among Korea, Japan and Taiwan are keeping the won weak. The market is not yet focused on this misalignment, but the fundamental direction suggests eventual appreciation once these flow pressures ease.
USD/KRW MED
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This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published June 30, 2026, features Kim Han-jin discussing 005930.KS, 000660.KS, WTI, US Long-dated Treasuries, USD/KRW. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kim Han-jin  · Tickers: 005930.KS, 000660.KS, WTI, US Long-dated Treasuries, USD/KRW