LIVE: Stocks Are CRASHING!!!!!! AMC Rugged.. GG. TRUMP PUMPS QUANTUM! IBM! USA vs CUBA!?!?!?! WTFFF
Speakers
Thread Guy
— Crypto influencer, independent
Summary
Thread Guy’s live stream on a sharp down day covers his IBM quantum trade, the destruction of his AMC long by dilution, an IRL renaissance thesis expressed via StubHub, MSG Entertainment and the Sphere, a Snapchat short on Meta’s new glasses, bearish views on cruises, and watch setups in Palantir and SpaceX. He also discusses the market selloff, South Korea’s circuit breaker, and the macro backdrop.
- Stocks sell off sharply – semis down 8%, KOSPI circuit breaker, broad fear ahead of Micron earnings.
- Long IBM following Trump’s coordinated quantum push, executive orders, and government grants.
- Bullish on the IRL renaissance: holds StubHub, and MSG Entertainment and the Sphere hit all‑time highs.
- Short Snapchat as Meta launches cheaper smart glasses and secures Kylie Jenner as ambassador.
- Thrashes AMC after a second massive share offering, calling the stock broken and uninvestable.
- Bearish on cruise lines, especially Carnival, seeing them as permanently impaired post‑COVID.
- Watches Palantir for a buy at $62 support, and SpaceX for a reversal above 190 on index inclusion catalysts.
Ideas
AMC dilution destroys shareholder value.
AMC is uninvestable because management continues to dilute shareholders at the worst possible time. Right after a $150 million dilution, they announced another $200 million offering, destroying the IRL movie‑theater thesis. The CEO is not aligned with shareholders, and the stock is broken.
IRL boom lifts live event stocks.
The IRL renaissance is a powerful shift: people want in‑person experiences, and Gen Z avoids drinking, making movies and live events key. StubHub is a held long (up 12%), and Madison Square Garden Entertainment and the Sphere are hitting all‑time highs as prime beneficiaries of live event demand.
Cruises never recover; Carnival doomed.
Cruise lines are a dead business post‑COVID. They will never regain all‑time attendance because of a permanent stigma of being gross, germ‑ridden, and low‑class. Carnival, in particular, will be forced to sell ships at cost or break them down for parts.
Meta’s glasses crush Snapchat.
Snapchat is an automatic short because Meta’s new $299 smart glasses under its own brand, plus a Kylie Jenner ambassador, threaten Snap’s competitive position. Snapchat immediately fell 4% on the announcement, and expensive celebrity deals (Robert Downey Jr. $100M) add to the negative case.
Buy Palantir at $62 support.
Palantir has fully retraced its Trump pump and hit new lows, but it likely finds strong support at $62. That level offers a clear buy opportunity for a bounce, though the overall setup remains uncertain.
Trump quantum push lifts IBM.
IBM is a buy after a coordinated White House quantum computing push, including a press conference with the CEO, executive orders, and government grants. Trump’s endorsement creates a narrative momentum trade; the stock is up sharply and he sees it as a short‑term special situation play.
Watch SpaceX for index inclusion bounce.
SpaceX is trading at all‑time lows near 147 after a brutal sell‑off. A large buyer (Kathy Wood) and potential positive catalysts such as Russell index inclusion and a NASDAQ listing in a couple of weeks could spark a reversal. He would re‑enter long if the stock reclaims the 190 level.
