Consumer is really strong after the best holiday season in five years, says JPMorgan's Matt Boss

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 20, 2026 at 20:47  |  4:37  |  CNBC
Speakers
Matt Boss — Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Summary

JPMorgan retail analyst Matt Boss says the U.S. consumer is strong after the best holiday season in five years, with mid-single-digit spending growth and resilience across income cohorts. He argues the consumer is selective and concentrated rather than a rising tide, favoring value retail, off-price/discount stores, and best-in-class brands over broad retail. He highlights TJX, Ross Stores, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Five Below, Ollie's, Ralph Lauren, Tapestry, and Amer Sports as favored names, while remaining neutral on Lululemon due to execution and competitive risks.

  • Matt Boss says consumer spending rose mid-single digits after the best holiday season in five years.
  • He sees a selective, concentrated consumer rather than a simple K-shaped or rising-tide economy.
  • Value retail, off-price, and dollar/discount stores are benefiting from that selectivity.
  • TJX is called a cornerstone multiyear compounder, while Ross Stores is cited as an off-price opportunity.
  • Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Five Below, and Ollie's are grouped as favored discount/off-price names.
  • Ralph Lauren, Tapestry, and Amer Sports are favored best-in-class brands with multiyear growth potential.
  • Lululemon remains neutral/watch with execution, product recall, turnaround, and competition risks.
Ideas
Matt Boss Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan 1:45
Selective consumer benefits value retail.
The consumer is selective and concentrated rather than a rising tide, which is benefiting value retail; off-pricers are showing results not seen in years, and dollar and discount stores are doing well as companies with size and scale invest and take share.
Value retail Off-price retail Dollar and discount stores HIGH
Matt Boss Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan 2:47
TJX is multiyear compounder.
TJX is a cornerstone multiyear compounder; it has come out stronger through every twist and turn of the economy and should keep gaining size and scale, investing, and taking share.
TJX HIGH
Matt Boss Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan 3:02
Ross Stores is off-price opportunity.
Ross Stores is an opportunity within off-price as the value-retail bucket expands into 2026 and 2027, supported by the strong off-price demand environment.
ROST MED
Matt Boss Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan 3:05
Discount retailers benefit from value demand.
Within the off-price world, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Five Below, and Ollie's are doing well as value/discount retailers benefiting from the selective consumer and from their ability to gain scale, invest, and take share.
DG DLTR Five Below OLLI MED
Matt Boss Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan 3:23
Best-in-class brands can compound.
Ralph Lauren, Tapestry, and Amer Sports are best-in-class brands that have invested in top-of-funnel marketing, and he expects them to grow on a multiyear basis as they gain share in a selective consumer environment.
RL TPR AS HIGH
Matt Boss Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan 3:54
Lululemon turnaround faces execution risk.
Lululemon remains a neutral/watch situation: execution and North America growth are the key issues; field work shows a weak start, an active product recall, past fabrication problems, and a need for 30-35% newness by spring, while competition from Alo and Vuori remains intense and the turnaround will be an evolution, not an overnight switch.
LULU HIGH
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This CNBC video, published January 20, 2026, features Matt Boss discussing Value retail, Off-price retail, Dollar and discount stores, TJX, ROST, DG, DLTR, Five Below, OLLI, RL, TPR, AS, LULU. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Matt Boss  · Tickers: Value retail, Off-price retail, Dollar and discount stores, TJX, ROST, DG, DLTR, Five Below, OLLI, RL, TPR, AS, LULU