A nova decisão do Fed pode MUDAR o rumo dos juros

Summary

Fernando Ulrich analyzes the Fed's latest decision to hold rates, highlighting the unprecedented uncertainty around the official inflation metric under review by Chair Kevin Warsh. He explains how the end of forward guidance and the spike in long-term U.S. Treasury yields to multi-decade highs are tightening global financial conditions and capping Brazilian long bond rallies. Finally, he warns that the combination of rising rates and doubts about AI returns is driving a sharp correction in AI-related stocks and South Korean memory leaders.

• Fed leaves rates unchanged but the preferred inflation measure is under review, creating regime uncertainty.
• Chair Kevin Warsh cited Goodhart's law suggesting publicly targeted indicators become manipulated over time.
• The termination of forward guidance leaves markets without rate-path signals.
• Long-end U.S. yields surged: the 30-year Treasury reached 5.2%, the highest since 2007.
• The global tightening cycle sets a floor for Brazilian long rates, limiting scope for declines.
• AI/tech stocks sold off: Meta fell ~10% after earnings, Nvidia continued correcting, and the South Korean market is down over 40% from its peak.
• Samsung and SK Hynix lost over 15% in two sessions, reflecting doubts over AI infrastructure ROI.