Is Bessent in a Hurry? The Real Reason for the Surge in US Long-Term Interest Rates... An Opportunity Comes for Bitcoin

Summary

Yoon Su-mok, CEO of Whisperd Research, explains the U.S. Treasury's unscheduled long-end buyback as a policy signal rather than true risk-on liquidity. He argues the surge in long-term yields is mainly driven by massive ultra-long debt issuance from big tech and hyperscalers into a thin investor base. This creates a debasement trade favoring gold and Bitcoin, with regulatory tailwinds giving crypto an extra edge. He also sees a potential 30-year Treasury dip-buying trade around the 'Bessent put' and expects Bitcoin to turn decisively bullish after early October.

• Treasury buyback is unscheduled, targets 10-30 year maturities, and acts as a policy signal/Bessent put rather than large liquidity support.
• Big tech and hyperscaler ultra-long bond issuance is identified as the biggest cause of rising U.S. long-term yields.
• Higher long rates pressure mortgages, corporate credit, growth stock valuations, and government interest costs.
• Gold and Bitcoin are rising as a debasement trade, with crypto favored over gold due to regulatory developments.
• Bond traders may buy 30-year Treasuries on yield spikes toward 5.3% because Bessent is expected to cap yields.
• Bitcoin's cycle may bottom into early October before a stronger rally into year-end and next year.
• The Treasury is expected to lean on crypto, stablecoin, and on-chain demand to help absorb government debt.