Yoon Su-mok

Bitcoin is positively exposed to Kevin Warsh's tenure as Fed chair and to upcoming stablecoin infrastructure. Warsh is the first genuinely pro-crypto Fed chair with a deep understanding of bitcoin, having called it the new gold for under-40s and a market discipline indicator. Moreover, the Fed plans to launch a skinny master account for payment settlement in Q4, which will allow stablecoin issuers like Circle and Ripple to access Fed payment rails without needing full master accounts. This will accelerate stablecoin adoption and serve as a major catalyst for the broader crypto market, including bitcoin.

US equities are likely to rally after Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, because resolving the uncertainty itself will be taken positively and the existing upward trend will continue. Even if the dot plot appears hawkish, a calm and stable press conference will allow markets to interpret the event as uncertainty cleared, pushing prices higher.

MicroStrategy's decision to sell 32 BTC and raise its convertible note yield to 11-12% is a strategic mistake that signals a lack of confidence. The stock price is dropping and they need to lower the yield to around 7% to recover.