ИндексБар #17 Трампа с Ираном, отчет SpaceX, крах фонда Леопольда и ликвидации корейцев.

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 07, 2026 at 05:55  |  1:26:58  |  Анатолий Радченко | Финансовый кружок
Speakers
Anatoly Radchenko — Host, investor, trader
Гоша — Co-host

Summary

The episode reviews the Leopold fund blow-up and Korean liquidation cascade, then focuses on tradeable ideas in SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Oracle, Western Digital, semiconductors, banks, nuclear/clean energy, and crypto. The hosts emphasize short-term, technically driven trading and the dominance of leverage and options. Key bullish expressions include SpaceX, RKLB, ORCL, WDC, banks, and ETH; nuclear/clean energy is avoided near-term.

  • Leopold fund collapse from leverage and put hedging led to forced selling in AI/momentum names and Citadel buying the portfolio.
  • Korean retail leverage concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix amplified a semiconductor liquidation cascade.
  • Good earnings from SanDisk and Western Digital were sold due to crowded options and leverage; technical levels drove sharp rebounds.
  • SpaceX is discussed as a long around lockup, AI/Starlink growth, and monopoly launch position; Rocket Lab is a high-risk launch alternative with a 100 target.
  • Oracle is favored on OpenAI infrastructure demand and seller exhaustion after negative data-center news.
  • Macro data show strong consumption and low oil inventories; banks are expected to benefit from steep rates and AI capex.
  • Nuclear/clean energy is avoided until rates normalize; Ethereum is preferred over Bitcoin in crypto.
Ideas
Anatoly Radchenko Host, investor, trader 28:07
SpaceX lockup setup favors short covering.
SpaceX has almost no borrowable shorts after heavy retail hedging; when lockup ends, market makers and early investors must buy to cover shorts, and recent IPO data show longs are more likely around lockup expiry. With the stock near 110 versus a volume-weighted IPO average near 165 and known negatives already priced, longs are more attractive than shorts.
SPCX HIGH
Anatoly Radchenko Host, investor, trader 37:46
Rocket Lab scarce launch upside to 100.
Rocket Lab is one of only two companies capable of orbital launch, but is far smaller than SpaceX. He calls it one of his best high-risk ideas: price around 75, target 100, with the next report on October 10; the scarcity of launch alternatives supports the upside.
RKLB HIGH
Anatoly Radchenko Host, investor, trader 45:18
Oracle AI infrastructure demand makes it attractive.
Oracle stopped falling on negative news about data-center delays, a sign sellers were exhausted. Oracle builds infrastructure for OpenAI, and Microsoft Azure growth of about 80% including AI suggests OpenAI drives a large share of cloud revenue, so Oracle's debt-funded data centers should get paid. Larry Ellison's backing and already-priced negativity make Oracle a good medium/long-term investment.
ORCL HIGH
Гоша Co-host 47:27
Semis cautious; buy dip near 180.
Semiconductors are unattractive to buy right now because the market is selling capex-heavy AI stories even though the AI capex thesis is intact. He has exited most chips and would start a partial position around 180 if the sector pulls back there before the August 12 report, expecting a possible capex/offering scare.
SMH MED
Гоша Co-host 48:04
Cloud companies attractive after earnings.
He likes cloud companies because they are the other side of AI infrastructure demand, but would wait until after their earnings before buying; until then it is a watch/setup rather than an active long.
SKYY LOW
Гоша Co-host 67:54
Banks benefit from steep curve, AI capex.
Banks should be long-term beneficiaries of the current cycle because the steep yield curve allows them to borrow short cheaply and lend long to finance the massive AI/datacenter capex of the largest US companies. This large investment flow also reduces bad-loan risk and stabilizes the financial system.
KBE HIGH
Anatoly Radchenko Host, investor, trader 75:26
Buy WDC flush for rebound to 440.
Western Digital gapped below a clear 438-440 level after its report and flushed to 410-409; these liquidation moves offer a buying opportunity because price should at least return to the broken level, with a further target near 560.
WDC HIGH
Гоша Co-host 78:06
Avoid nuclear/clean energy until rates ease.
Nuclear, hydrogen, and clean energy should be avoided for now: they are capital-intensive and debt-heavy, high rates make them unattractive, earnings confirm there is little revenue, and volumes have left the sector. It is a long-term theme but too early to own.
URA ICLN XLE MED
Гоша Co-host 81:27
Ethereum preferred over Bitcoin now.
Crypto has been forgotten and may rotate back; he prefers Ethereum over Bitcoin because Ethereum has a development roadmap, resistance fixes, privacy upgrades, and staking, while Bitcoin has notable vulnerability/treasury concentration. He bought around 1,700 and recommends holding Ethereum.
ETH HIGH
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This Анатолий Радченко | Финансовый кружок video, published August 07, 2026, features Anatoly Radchenko, Гоша discussing SPCX, RKLB, ORCL, SMH, SKYY, KBE, WDC, URA, ICLN, XLE, ETH. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Anatoly Radchenko, Гоша  · Tickers: SPCX, RKLB, ORCL, SMH, SKYY, KBE, WDC, URA, ICLN, XLE, ETH