Bitcoin Bottom Not In: Ben Cowen Reveals Next Price Target

Summary

• Bitcoin is in a midterm year bear market, with historical patterns indicating further downside; Benjamin Cowen expects a ~70% drop from the peak.
• Late business cycle environment explains why altcoins haven't rallied; risk is rolling down the curve, with high-risk assets underperforming low-risk ones.
• Bitcoin is bleeding against other assets like NASDAQ and gold, showing capital outflows from crypto into more stable or traditional assets.
• Social interest in Bitcoin has been trending down since 2021, reducing retail participation and speculative excess.
• On-chain indicators (e.g., supply in profit/loss, realized price, balance price) suggest the bottom isn't in yet; Bitcoin typically bottoms below these levels.
• Oil price spikes in late business cycles can cause short-term inflation but often lead to market collapses and disinflationary pressures.
• The Fed's dual mandate creates a dilemma if both unemployment rises and inflation resurges, potentially delaying rate cuts until late 2027.
• Retail has largely exited crypto, possibly moving to AI, prediction markets, or simply withdrawing due to disillusionment with meme coins and scams.
• Energy assets have outperformed Bitcoin in midterm years, but no explicit bullish trade is recommended.
• The only crypto asset deemed worth holding long-term is Bitcoin, but the short-to-medium-term outlook remains bearish due to macro headwinds.