Volume Will Be Real Marker of IPO Market: Sawyer

Summary

Melissa Sawyer, Sullivan & Cromwell's Global Head of M&A, says IPO market volume will be the key signal that M&A is truly recovering. She argues that once private equity sponsors feel confident enough to exit portfolio companies and recycle capital, a wave of M&A could follow. Sawyer also notes that a softer tone from Washington and US regulators' willingness to accept behavioral or divestment remedies have restored deal confidence, though the US regulatory thaw is not matched globally, creating cross-border deal challenges.

• IPO market volume is seen as the real marker of M&A recovery.
• Sponsor exits and capital recycling could trigger a wave of M&A.
• Toned-down Washington rhetoric has restored confidence for dealmakers.
• US regulators appear more open to behavioral and divestment remedies.
• J.D. Vance still has concerns about tech and healthcare mergers.
• US regulatory thaw is not mirrored globally.
• Cross-border deals may face different outcomes in the US versus Europe.