Summary
The April ADP private payrolls report showed 109,000 job gains, beating the 84,000 estimate, with strength in small businesses and services. Nela Richardson and Steve Liesman discuss the composition of job growth, noting a shift toward part-time, lower-paid positions at small firms, while large companies are net laying off. The conversation touches on the AI impact on hiring and the ongoing discrepancy between ADP and BLS data.
- ADP reported 109,000 private payroll gains in April, above the 84,000 estimate.
- March ADP was revised slightly down to 61,000.
- Job growth was concentrated in small businesses (under 50 employees) and health services.
- Medium-sized businesses added only 2,000 jobs, showing a barbell hiring pattern.
- Wage growth for job stayers was 4.4% and for job changers 6.6%.
- The quality of new jobs is lower, with more part-time and lower-paid positions.
- Health care continues to lead job creation, particularly home health care.
- The AI effect on layoffs is debated but not yet clearly seen in the data.