This Week's US Stock Valuation and Economic Indicators Review

Summary

Choi Il-ho reviews July US stock and ETF performance, noting a struggling semiconductor sector while the equal-weight S&P 500 holds up on market broadening. He sees a potential bounce in beaten-down US semiconductors if oil and rates ease and upcoming big tech earnings confirm capex. Park Se-ik discusses the Korean market, highlighting Naver's Nvidia investment as a positive catalyst and expecting bargain-hunting in Korean IT stocks after their correction, contingent on US earnings and macro signals. Both speakers emphasize this week's major events—FOMC, inflation data, and heavy earnings—as pivotal for directional clarity.

• US semiconductors (SMH/SOX) down -17.7% MTD, showing high volatility and rebounding stocks like MU and AMD before Friday's sell-off.
• Equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) outperformed SPY, pointing to rotation into non-mega-cap sectors such as energy, financials, healthcare.
• Choi Il-ho believes beaten-down semiconductors could rally harder if oil/rates ease and big tech earnings confirm robust capex.
• Park Se-ik notes Naver received a third-party equity injection from Nvidia, a strong strategic catalyst for the stock.
• Korean IT and semiconductor sectors are considered oversold, with bargain-hunting likely if US big tech capex and macro improve.
• Key events this week: FOMC meeting, PCE inflation, and earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and many semiconductor firms.
• Park Se-ik argues the US will try to control oil prices, which should limit further yield increases and support equity valuations.
• The dollar-won rate fell sharply due to Korea's rate hike, foreign equity flow slowdown, and SK hynix ADR conversion.