Markets Weekly May 23, 2026

Summary

Joseph Wang discusses rising geopolitical risks, the Fed's increasingly hawkish stance with inflation above 4%, and the implications of the massive SpaceX IPO. He highlights that the market is pricing in a rate hike and that increased equity supply from major IPOs could act as headwinds for financial assets.

• Geopolitical tensions with Iran and Cuba are highlighted as potential market-moving events.
• The Fed is turning hawkish; the market now prices in one rate hike this year.
• Inflation forecasts from the Cleveland Fed show CPI/PCE above 4%.
• Longer-term inflation expectations remain benign per the 5y5y forward.
• SpaceX IPO is expected to be the largest ever, with a $1.5-2 trillion valuation.
• SpaceX loses money ($4B loss on $20B revenue) but has a vast TAM pitch.
• Massive equity supply from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could pressure markets.
• Joseph Wang reiterates that leverage and momentum, not earnings, drive markets.