Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough

Summary

The besties debate Trump firing Fed governor Lisa Cook and whether the Federal Reserve is genuinely independent, with Chamath arguing the Fed is political and that Treasury and free markets should set rates, Sacks arguing Powell has been intensely political, and Jason and Friedberg defending the board structure and the 14-year term. They then discuss the US government taking a 10% non-voting stake in Intel, whether equity for grants should become a playbook, and where such equity should sit, comparing a new sovereign wealth fund against the Social Security trust fund. The second half covers 2025 corporate bankruptcies running at the highest level since 2010, attributed to the draining zero-rate money reservoir, structurally levered retail leases and a 2.2 trillion dollar commercial real estate refinancing wall. Friedberg closes with OpenAI's GPT-4B micro model designing Yamanaka-factor proteins roughly 50 times more effective at cellular rejuvenation.

• Trump fired Fed governor Lisa Cook for cause over a mortgage fraud referral; she has sued and the case may reach the Supreme Court.
• Chamath argues Fed governors are political appointees and that rate setting and monetary policy belong with Treasury, SOFR and real-time market pricing oracles fed by blockchain-published economic data.
• Sacks says Powell rode the transitory narrative to win renomination and cut 50bp before the 2024 election, causing misallocated capital, 9% inflation and the 2022-2023 crash.
• Friedberg warns that forcing the short end lower can push 30-year rates up by stimulating inflation and government spending, raising the long-term cost of servicing US debt.
• The US took a 10% non-voting stake in Intel; the group broadly prefers equity or warrants to free grants, citing MP Materials and China's state-champion playbook in semis and rare earths.
• Friedberg would park government equity in the Social Security OASI trust fund and let it buy public equities, while Chamath would seed a sovereign wealth fund with over a trillion dollars of tariff-deal inbound capital.
• 2025 large corporate bankruptcies are tracking the most since 2010, blamed on the draining zero-rate capital reservoir, PE-levered retail, ten-year store leases and new cross-industry competitors.
• Sacks details a 2.2 trillion dollar commercial real estate maturity wall through 2028, with higher coupons and lower loan-to-value forcing equity gaps and handing zombie buildings back to banks.
• OpenAI's GPT-4B micro model, with Retro Biosciences, designed Yamanaka-factor protein variants about 50 times more effective at cellular rejuvenation; first approvals are seen seven to twelve years away.