Oil market would be concerned with broader conflict in Iran, says RBC's Helima Croft

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 30, 2026 at 21:21  |  5:14  |  CNBC
Speakers
Helima Croft — Head of Global Commodity Research, RBC Capital Markets
Kelly Evans — Anchor, The Exchange (CNBC)

Summary

Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets discusses geopolitical risks in the Middle East and their implications for oil. She says a broader U.S.-Iran/Israel confrontation or regime-change operation could threaten regional energy infrastructure and create supply disruption risk, though no disruption has occurred yet. She also assesses Venezuela's oil sector, saying Chevron's planned production increase is small and slow and would not offset a Middle East supply shock.

  • Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets discusses Middle East geopolitical risk and oil.
  • U.S. military redeployment and new Iran red lines raise concern about a broader conflict.
  • Regional allies are trying to prevent a destabilizing conflict that could hit energy infrastructure.
  • Venezuela has moved to open its oil sector to privatization.
  • Chevron plans a 50% Venezuela production increase over 18-24 months from a small base.
  • Croft sees only modest near-term Venezuelan output gains, not enough to offset a Middle East supply disruption.
  • No supply disruption has occurred yet, but oil risk remains event-driven.
Ideas
Helima Croft Head of Global Commodity Research, RBC Capital Markets 2:23
Oil supply risk if conflict broadens
Helima Croft warns that a broader Iran/Middle East confrontation or U.S. regime-change operation would worry market participants because regional energy infrastructure and economic assets could be targeted, creating oil supply disruption risk. She says no supply disruption has occurred yet, but the setup is worth monitoring given U.S. military deployments and unresolved Iran nuclear/missile talks.
WTI HIGH
Helima Croft Head of Global Commodity Research, RBC Capital Markets 4:04
Chevron Venezuela output gains look muted
Helima Croft says Chevron's planned 50% increase in Venezuela production is off a small 250,000 bpd base and will take 18-24 months. She thinks only a couple hundred thousand barrels are feasible near term, while a million-plus additional barrels would require a stable security environment, stable contracting regime, major infrastructure improvements, and returning key personnel; therefore Venezuela output gains are modest and would not offset a Middle East supply disruption.
CVX MED
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This CNBC video, published January 30, 2026, features Helima Croft discussing WTI, CVX. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Helima Croft  · Tickers: WTI, CVX