Daily Morning Fund Managers' Operations Meeting Live with Park Se-ik Senior Managing Director & Chesley Investment Advisory — September 3 Morning Brief
Daily Morning Fund Managers' Operations Meeting Live | Park Se-ik Senior Managing Director & Chesley Investment Advisory [Morning Brief / 26.09.03.Thu]
Speakers
Wang
— Manager, China market
Hae-soo
— US market analyst
Seon-gu
— Manager
Park Se-ik
— CEO, ex-Chief Strategist
Jun-yeok
— Virtual assets analyst
Summary
The September 3 morning briefing covered global markets and actionable stock ideas. US markets rebounded led by AI hardware and nuclear/power while software and cybersecurity lagged, and Korea stabilized overnight. Analysts highlighted long ideas in LG Innotek, Broadcom, HPE, Samwha Capacitor, Simmtech, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Alteogen, Robinhood, and US power/nuclear, with Bitcoin in a range and Chinese defense viewed negatively. Several tactical index calls were also given for the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
- Reviewed China market weakness due to US rates and called Chinese defense stocks theme-driven with weak fundamentals.
- Detailed LG Innotek's stable earnings and potential multiple expansion from AI, telecom, and auto growth.
- Covered US rebound: AI hardware outperformed while software/cybersecurity sold off on valuation concerns.
- Analyzed Broadcom and HPE earnings positively, highlighting AI server demand and operating leverage.
- Discussed Korean component names Samwha Capacitor, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Simmtech on MLCC/socket AI ramps.
- Covered Bitcoin rangebound action between 77k and 83k and Robinhood's early blockchain revenue traction.
- Highlighted AI electricity demand lifting US nuclear/power stocks and gave short-term index predictions.
Ideas
Theme stocks with weak fundamentals to avoid.
China's listed defense sector is mostly theme-driven rather than fundamental because important defense businesses are unlisted, export ratios are low, most revenue is domestic, and margins are low. The analyst says the sector's stocks move up and down on theme, not operational quality, so the sector should be viewed negatively.
High valuations make software and cyber vulnerable.
Software and cybersecurity stocks sold off even when earnings were solid because high valuations and growth quality are a burden. Palo Alto, Palantir and CrowdStrike fell sharply, while the software ETF dropped 2.6%. The speaker highlights that high valuation and rotation toward AI hardware make software/cybersecurity vulnerable near term.
AI electricity demand lifts nuclear and power.
AI-driven electricity demand is lifting US nuclear and power producers: Constellation Energy, Vistra, and GE Vernova rose on AI power demand and grid/power-infrastructure themes. The analyst highlights the same AI electricity-demand narrative supporting power-related stocks and expects a positive readthrough.
Sideways until decisive break above 83k.
Bitcoin is stuck in a sideways range after being rejected at resistance; the key level is 83,000, and unless it breaks out strongly above that, the analyst expects continued sideways/range trading. The 50-day moving average is overhead resistance, but the supply cloud is shrinking. Once the market enters and absorbs that overhead inventory, a more tradeable move may develop. Spot ETF flows have begun to show some outflows, supporting near-term range caution.
New blockchain fees add early revenue momentum.
Robinhood's blockchain/L2 chain has shown strong early traction: TVL is near $780m and rising, memecoin trading is driving chain fees, and current daily fees around $3m imply roughly $100m annualized added revenue. The core brokerage is already strong, and the new chain adds optionality. This is encouraging even though it is early and not yet a large contributor to revenue.
Buy quality AI semiconductor leader on dips.
Broadcom delivered revenue, EPS and AI semiconductor revenue above consensus, with AI semiconductor revenue up 221% year over year. Management issued FY2027/FY2028 AI revenue targets roughly doubling annually and said the guidance is conservative. Even though a rising mix of lower-margin semiconductor revenue slightly dilutes margins, EPS should be revised upward and the valuation has compressed to about 20x forward earnings. The speaker views Broadcom as a quality compounder and would use weakness, especially during September rate and volatility dips, as a buying opportunity.
AI server orders boost earnings and valuation.
HPE posted strong cloud/AI and networking results with guidance above consensus and record AI orders of $3.1 billion plus backlog of $7.6 billion. Enterprise AI demand is moving from pilot to production, and the company is showing strong operating leverage: revenue grew about 34% while operating profit rose about 155%, lifting operating margin from 8.5% to 16.2%. The stock trades near 12.9x earnings, which the analyst sees as reasonable and potentially closer to mid-teens, keeping the AI server cycle intact.
Monopoly biotech trades below 30x forward.
Alteogen signed a 4.4trn-won deal that represents roughly 30% of prior SC-type hyaluronidase injection deal volume, but the stock barely rallied in weak market sentiment. As Korea's largest biotech by market cap with a monopoly on its platform, it trades below 30x forward earnings on 2026–2027 estimates and should perform well when KOSDAQ sentiment improves.
MLCC upcycle turns earnings sharply upward.
Samwha Capacitor, a tier-2 MLCC maker, is entering an MLCC upcycle with tier-1 price hikes starting to flow through. Second-quarter operating margin recovered to double digits for the first time in eight quarters, and that was before price increases. From Q3, price hikes by tier-1 names like Samsung Electro-Mechanics should lift tier-2 volume and pricing. Its film capacitor business for data-center and transformer power electronics carries higher margins and is entering a new order cycle. The analyst models 2027 revenue/operating profit of about 400bn/60bn won and sees potential for 2028 operating profit of 120–200bn won if MLCC margins normalize, making the current 1.1trn market cap attractive relative to Samsung Electro-Mechanics' 30–50x multiple.
MLCC price hikes boost third-quarter earnings.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics' MLCC component segment improved operating margin from 11% to 17% in Q2 based only on utilization, before reflecting price hikes. With tier-1 MLCC pricing increases starting in August, the price effect should begin to appear from Q3, supporting further earnings improvement. AI server high-capacitance MLCC demand is driving tier-1 capacity conversion and favorable pricing.
AI socket ramp lifts margins and earnings.
Simmtech is benefiting from the AI memory module and socket ramp and is investing 270bn won to expand AI socket/module substrate and MSAP capacity. Socket revenue is forecast to jump from 25bn won in Q2 to 80bn won by Q4 as NVIDIA's Rubin platform starts adoption. Socket margins are well above the company's base business, so the mix shift should sharply lift overall operating margin. The analyst says customer-driven demand and support/prepayments reduce the risk of a rights offering, and the stock trades at an attractive 11.6x FY2027 EPS.
Weak ADP supports lower rates, Dow up.
US 10-year yields stopped rising after weak ADP employment and a more dovish New York Fed tone, reducing rate fear. The Dow bounced from its 60-day average and the speaker expects another positive close today.
Bounces from 60-day average, room higher.
Nasdaq is expected to rise because the rate and oil pressure was not severe enough to stop a rebound. It started rebounding from its 60-day line and still has room to the 5-day moving average, so the analyst expects a positive close.
High oil and rates create near-term pressure.
S&P 500 is expected to close lower because oil remains at a high level and Treasury yields, though off their highs, are still high enough to be a burden in a mixed market.
Up Next
This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published September 03, 2026, features Wang, Hae-soo, Jun-yeok, Park Se-ik, Seon-gu discussing China defense stocks, IGV, CEG, VST, GEV, BTC, HOOD, AVGO, HPE, 196170.KQ, 001820.KS, 009150.KS, 222800.KQ, DJI, NASDAQ Composite, SPY, SOXX. 15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Wang, Hae-soo, Jun-yeok, Park Se-ik, Seon-gu · Tickers: China defense stocks, IGV, CEG, VST, GEV, BTC, HOOD, AVGO, HPE, 196170.KQ, 001820.KS, 009150.KS, 222800.KQ, DJI, NASDAQ Composite, SPY, SOXX