Trump vs Powell: The Battle That Could Break the Fed w/ James Lavish

Summary

James Lavish joins Milk Road Macro to discuss the Trump-Powell conflict, the Fed's independence, and why political pressure over rates intersects with heavy government borrowing. He explains that the Fed has ended QT and is doing reserve-management purchases, but full QE would likely require a funding-market break. Lavish favors hard assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin as debasement hedges, while still arguing investors need AI exposure through the Magnificent Seven and may pair it with gold.

• Trump administration pressure and a Powell subpoena raise questions about Fed independence.
• Deficits and Treasury issuance keep borrowing costs at the center of the political fight.
• Central banks are shifting Treasury demand toward gold and silver.
• Stablecoins and the GENIUS Act could create incremental T-bill demand.
• The Fed has ended QT but has not begun full QE; funding-market stress remains a trigger.
• Lavish sees Bitcoin as a long-term debasement hedge and expects it to resume higher.
• AI/Magnificent Seven exposure is framed as necessary despite high valuations.
• A gold-AI barbell and Bitcoin treasury companies are highlighted as implementation ideas.