The Best AI Investor Is Betting Against NVIDIA

Summary

The hosts dissect Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI portfolio and the rotation from semiconductor picks-and-shovels into physical infrastructure. They examine NVIDIA's $25B bond offering, Leopold's massive short position, and his private stake in Anthropic. The discussion concludes that the AI trade is not a bubble but is shifting toward power, memory, data-center networking, and optical fiber, with specific public-company ideas like Marvell and Bloom Energy highlighted as investable beneficiaries.

• Leopold's fund has reportedly grown to $20B AUM, rivaling Bill Ackman's Pershing Square.
• His 13F revealed $9B in puts on NVIDIA, ASML, and Oracle, signaling a bearish view on pick-and-shovel semis.
• NVIDIA's $25B bond offering, alongside similar raises by hyperscalers, raised questions about a potential shift in funding models.
• Leopold rotated into power, memory, neocloud, and optical fiber, and holds a ~20% private stake in Anthropic.
• Jensen Huang called Marvell the next trillion-dollar company and invested $1.5B, aligning with Leopold's infrastructure thesis.
• Josh favors Bloom Energy as a hedged play on secular electricity demand.
• Copper and fiber optics are emerging as critical materials for AI data-center buildout.
• The hosts see no bubble yet, but a clear rotation from chip infrastructure to harder physical infrastructure.